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Gornik Konin vs Gwardia Koszalin

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group II 2020/2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Gornik Konin play Gwardia Koszalin in the III Liga - Group II 2020/2021. It looks like a close match. Recently, Gornik Konin averaged 1 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. Gwardia Koszalin averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1.48 conceded. In past meetings, Gornik Konin won 1, Gwardia Koszalin won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 2, 2021 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Gornik Konin and 1.00 for Gwardia Koszalin. This points to a Gwardia Koszalin double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Gornik Konin
21%
Draws
49%
Gwardia Koszalin
Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Gwardia Koszalin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence
  • Gornik Konin picked up more points recently compared to Gwardia Koszalin.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Gornik Konin Clean Sheet 23%
Gwardia Koszalin Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gornik Konin Gwardia Koszalin
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 7 10
Draws 5 8
Losses 18 11
Goals Scored 1 1.24
Goals Conceded 2.2 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 2, 2021 III Liga - Group II
Gwardia Koszalin vs Gornik Konin
0:1
Mar 27, 2021 III Liga - Group II
Gornik Konin vs Gwardia Koszalin
0:1
May 2, 2020 III Liga - Group II
Gwardia Koszalin vs Gornik Konin
0:0
Sep 28, 2019 III Liga - Group II
Gornik Konin vs Gwardia Koszalin
2:3
May 25, 2019 III Liga - Group II
Gornik Konin vs Gwardia Koszalin
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gornik Konin Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Gwardia Koszalin Compare

Top Goalscorer Szukielowicz D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gornik Konin 32 / 100
Gwardia Koszalin 46 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gornik Konin Gwardia Koszalin

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Gwardia Koszalin or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +36.5%
4.55
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Gornik Konin attacking → ← attacking Gwardia Koszalin

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gornik Konin scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Gwardia Koszalin let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Gornik Konin went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Gwardia Koszalin lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

26 Points in last 5 38
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Stezyca21181269:1255
2Swit Szczecin21155146:1250
3Polonia Sroda Wielkopol21145247:2047
4Elana Torun21106541:2036
5Starogard Gdanski21113729:2936
6Przodkowo21105636:2335
7B. Gdynia2197531:2134
8Pogon Szczecin II21104748:3934
9Kotwica Kolobrzeg2188532:2432
10Kleczew2193933:3230
11Jarocin2185843:3329
12Baltyk Koszalin2185842:3629
13Unia Janikowo2185832:3829
14Nielba Wagrowiec2175939:3726
15Pomorzanin Torun2168720:2226
16Unia Swarzedz21741031:2525
17Gwardia Koszalin21741026:3325
18Swinoujscie2167824:3525
19Gryf Wejherowo21631231:4921
20Chemik Police21231610:639
21Gornik Konin21221714:548
22KS Mieszko Gniezno2102199:762