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Gran Pena vs Alondras - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026
Gran Pena Logo

Gran Pena

0 - 2
FT
Alondras Logo

Alondras

Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Camba L.
90' Event
Camba L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Alondras in this Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alondras.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Gran Pena
15%
Draws
48%
Alondras
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alondras

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Gran Pena have won more games recently than Alondras.
  • Model gives Gran Pena a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Gran Pena Clean Sheet 17%
Alondras Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gran Pena Alondras
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 14 12
Draws 8 7
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.9 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.26 1.42
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Alondras
0:2
Dec 14, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Alondras vs Gran Pena
1:1
Feb 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Alondras vs Gran Pena
0:0
Oct 6, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Alondras
2:1
Mar 3, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Alondras
1:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gran Pena Compare

Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Alondras Compare

Top Goalscorer Camba L.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gran Pena 36 / 100
Alondras 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gran Pena Alondras

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gran Pena found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (31 games).

Defensive concern: Alondras conceded in 68% of 31 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Gran Pena remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Gran Pena VS Alondras
2.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Gran Pena

(Home)
04 Oct
Gran Pena
3 : 2
Atletico Arteixo
26 Sept
Sarriana
3 : 2
Gran Pena
20 Sept
Gran Pena
0 : 0
Antela
13 Sept
Pontevedra B
1 : 2
Gran Pena
06 Sept
Gran Pena
1 : 2
Lalin
Page 1 of 7

Alondras

(Away)
03 Oct
Alondras
0 : 1
Montaneros
26 Sept
Atletico Arteixo
2 : 4
Alondras
20 Sept
Alondras
2 : 0
Sarriana
13 Sept
Antela
0 : 2
Alondras
05 Sept
Alondras
2 : 6
Pontevedra B
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arosa SC 34 20 10 4 58:35 70
2 Compostela 34 19 11 4 55:28 68
3 Atletico Arteixo 34 16 10 8 54:44 58
4 Estradense 34 14 11 9 46:33 53
5 Racing Club Villalbes 34 13 13 8 36:29 52
6 Gran Pena 34 13 12 9 57:42 51
7 Somozas 34 13 12 9 37:32 51
8 CD Boiro 34 13 12 9 45:29 51
9 Lugo B 34 12 12 10 41:35 48
10 Montaneros 34 12 12 10 48:42 48
11 Barco 34 13 7 14 35:41 46
12 Alondras 34 12 9 13 45:48 45
13 Celtiga 34 11 7 16 47:48 40
14 Viveiro 34 9 11 14 27:41 38
15 Silva SD 34 9 9 16 36:48 36
16 Cambados 34 4 14 16 24:43 26
17 Noia 34 6 7 21 28:57 25
18 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 4 7 23 25:69 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Play Offs)