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Gran Pena vs Noia

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Rodriguez A.
18' Event
Fontan Davila M.
25' Event
Armada T.

AI Match Summary

Gran Pena in this Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 5-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gran Pena.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Gran Pena
15%
Draws
28%
Noia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gran Pena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Gran Pena lately — more wins on the board than Noia.
  • Model gives Gran Pena a 57% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Gran Pena Clean Sheet 68%
Noia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gran Pena Noia
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 12 5
Draws 7 6
Losses 9 19
Goals Scored 1.86 0.77
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Noia vs Gran Pena
1:5
Jan 18, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Noia
5:0
Mar 9, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Noia
3:3
Oct 27, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Noia vs Gran Pena
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gran Pena Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fontan Davila M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Noia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gran Pena 95 / 100
Noia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gran Pena Noia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gran Pena Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gran Pena scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Noia conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Gran Pena has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Gran Pena VS Noia
2.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Gran Pena

(Home)
13 Sept
Pontevedra B
1 : 2
Gran Pena
06 Sept
Gran Pena
1 : 2
Lalin
10 May
Noia
1 : 5
Gran Pena
03 May
Gran Pena
4 : 1
Racing Club Villalbes
26 Apr
Barbadas-Bentraces
0 : 4
Gran Pena
Page 1 of 6

Noia

(Away)
10 May
Noia
1 : 5
Gran Pena
03 May
Silva SD
5 : 2
Noia
25 Apr
Noia
3 : 0
Celtiga
19 Apr
Cambados
0 : 3
Noia
12 Apr
Noia
0 : 2
CD Boiro
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arosa SC 34 20 10 4 58:35 70
2 Compostela 34 19 11 4 55:28 68
3 Atletico Arteixo 34 16 10 8 54:44 58
4 Estradense 34 14 11 9 46:33 53
5 Racing Club Villalbes 34 13 13 8 36:29 52
6 Gran Pena 34 13 12 9 57:42 51
7 Somozas 34 13 12 9 37:32 51
8 CD Boiro 34 13 12 9 45:29 51
9 Lugo B 34 12 12 10 41:35 48
10 Montaneros 34 12 12 10 48:42 48
11 Barco 34 13 7 14 35:41 46
12 Alondras 34 12 9 13 45:48 45
13 Celtiga 34 11 7 16 47:48 40
14 Viveiro 34 9 11 14 27:41 38
15 Silva SD 34 9 9 16 36:48 36
16 Cambados 34 4 14 16 24:43 26
17 Noia 34 6 7 21 28:57 25
18 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 4 7 23 25:69 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Play Offs)