Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Gran Pena vs Racing Club Villalbes

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Gran Pena play Racing Club Villalbes in the Tercera RFEF - Group 1. It looks like a close match. Recently, Gran Pena averaged 1.77 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. Racing Club Villalbes averaged 1.06 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. In past meetings, Gran Pena won 1, Racing Club Villalbes won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 3, 2026 ended 4:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Gran Pena and 1.00 for Racing Club Villalbes. This points to a Gran Pena double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Gran Pena
35%
Draws
30%
Racing Club Villalbes
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Gran Pena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Gran Pena picked up more points recently compared to Racing Club Villalbes.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 50%
Gran Pena Clean Sheet 23%
Racing Club Villalbes Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 60%
Second Half Goal 64%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gran Pena Racing Club Villalbes
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 13 11
Draws 9 12
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 1.77 1.06
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Racing Club Villalbes
4:1
Jan 11, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Racing Club Villalbes vs Gran Pena
1:0
Mar 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Racing Club Villalbes vs Gran Pena
0:0
Nov 3, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Racing Club Villalbes
1:2
Feb 11, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Racing Club Villalbes
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gran Pena Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez F.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Cellerino G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Racing Club Villalbes Compare

Top Goalscorer Miguez B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gran Pena 36 / 100
Racing Club Villalbes 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gran Pena Racing Club Villalbes

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Gran Pena or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Gran Pena attacking → ← attacking Racing Club Villalbes

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gran Pena scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Racing Club Villalbes let in goals in 52% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Gran Pena went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Racing Club Villalbes lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 45
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.50
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Arosa SC342010458:3570
2Compostela341911455:2868
3Atletico Arteixo341610854:4458
4Estradense341411946:3353
5Racing Club Villalbes341313836:2952
6Gran Pena341312957:4251
7Somozas341312937:3251
8CD Boiro341312945:2951
9Lugo B3412121041:3548
10Montaneros3412121048:4248
11Barco341371435:4146
12Alondras341291345:4845
13Celtiga341171647:4840
14Viveiro349111427:4138
15Silva SD34991636:4836
16Cambados344141624:4326
17Noia34672128:5725
18Barbadas-Bentraces34472325:6919