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Gran Tarajal vs Atletico Victoria

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Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2023/2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Gran Tarajal play Atletico Victoria in the Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2023/2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Gran Tarajal averaged 0.57 goals scored and 1.47 conceded. Atletico Victoria averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. In past meetings, Gran Tarajal won 0, Atletico Victoria won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 5, 2024 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.75 for Gran Tarajal and 0.88 for Atletico Victoria. This points to a Atletico Victoria double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Gran Tarajal
28%
Draws
44%
Atletico Victoria
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Atletico Victoria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Gran Tarajal picked up more points recently compared to Atletico Victoria.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.75 vs 0.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37%
Gran Tarajal Clean Sheet 25%
Atletico Victoria Clean Sheet 19%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gran Tarajal Atletico Victoria
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 4 7
Draws 9 8
Losses 17 15
Goals Scored 0.57 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 0.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Gran Tarajal vs Atletico Victoria
2:2
Jan 14, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Atletico Victoria vs Gran Tarajal
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gran Tarajal Compare

Top Goalscorer Perez J. M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Estevez J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19

Atletico Victoria Compare

Top Goalscorer Perez M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Medina C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.12
Avg xA / game 0.07

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gran Tarajal 30 / 100
Atletico Victoria 43 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gran Tarajal Atletico Victoria

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Atletico Victoria or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +40%
5.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.2%
2.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Gran Tarajal attacking → ← attacking Atletico Victoria

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gran Tarajal scored in 37% of their last 30 games.

Atletico Victoria let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Gran Tarajal went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Atletico Victoria lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

21 Points in last 5 29
0.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.13
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tenerife B34248268:2280
2Lanzarote34229364:2875
3Union Sur Yaiza342111262:1974
4Las Palmas B34228474:2474
5Panaderia341510952:3955
6Arucas341114951:4147
7CD Santa Ursula3410131135:3843
8San Bartolome3410121243:4242
9Villa Santa Brigida349141141:3641
10Tamaraceite341181542:5641
11CD Marino341091542:5339
12CD Buzanada349121329:4239
13Herbania349111430:4638
14Ibarra34991635:4536
15Atletico Victoria34881833:5332
16Teror34682029:6726
17Gran Tarajal344121821:5424
18CD La Cuadra34642426:7222