Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Gravina vs Afragolese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

52' Event
Santoro D.

AI Match Summary

Gravina in this Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gravina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Gravina
35%
Draws
12%
Afragolese
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Gravina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Gravina have won more games recently than Afragolese.
  • Model gives Gravina a 53% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Gravina have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Gravina Clean Sheet 68%
Afragolese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gravina Afragolese
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 15 8
Draws 5 12
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 1.61 1.04
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Afragolese vs Gravina
0:6
Dec 14, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Gravina vs Afragolese
1:0
Feb 5, 2023 Serie D - Group H
Afragolese vs Gravina
0:2
Oct 2, 2022 Serie D - Group H
Gravina vs Afragolese
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gravina Compare

Top Goalscorer Santoro D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09

Afragolese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gravina 95 / 100
Afragolese 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gravina Afragolese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gravina Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gravina went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Gravina scored in 64% of their last 28 games.

Afragolese has conceded goals in 64% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.75 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Gravina VS Afragolese
2.63 Goals Scored 0.5
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 25%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Gravina

(Home)
16 Sept
Turris
0 : 0
Gravina
12 Sept
Gravina
3 : 1
San Felice Gladiator
06 Sept
Fidelis Andria
1 : 3
Gravina
03 May
Gravina
3 : 2
Real Normanna
26 Apr
Afragolese
0 : 6
Gravina
Page 1 of 6

Afragolese

(Away)
16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0
Afragolese
12 Sept
Afragolese
1 : 1
Sarnese
06 Sept
Gelbison
0 : 0
Afragolese
03 May
Francavilla
2 : 0
Afragolese
26 Apr
Afragolese
0 : 6
Gravina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)