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Greenville Triumph vs One Knoxville

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US Open Cup 2025 Paladin Stadium
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AI Match Summary

Greenville Triumph play One Knoxville in the US Open Cup 2025. One Knoxville are favorites here. Recently, Greenville Triumph averaged 1 goals scored and 1.59 conceded. One Knoxville averaged 1.78 goals scored and 1.04 conceded. In past meetings, Greenville Triumph won 1, One Knoxville won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 29, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Greenville Triumph and 1.88 for One Knoxville. This points to a One Knoxville double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Greenville Triumph
15%
Draws
62%
One Knoxville
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: One Knoxville

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Greenville Triumph picked up more points recently compared to One Knoxville.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Greenville Triumph Clean Sheet 10%
One Knoxville Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Greenville Triumph One Knoxville
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 7 19
Draws 5 3
Losses 17 5
Goals Scored 1 1.78
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 29, 2026 USL League One
One Knoxville vs Greenville Triumph
2:0
Oct 25, 2025 USL League One
One Knoxville vs Greenville Triumph
1:0
Apr 9, 2025 USL League One
Greenville Triumph vs One Knoxville
0:1
Apr 2, 2025 US Open Cup
Greenville Triumph vs One Knoxville
1:3
Nov 2, 2024 USL League One
Greenville Triumph vs One Knoxville
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Greenville Triumph Compare

Top Goalscorer Mensah R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

One Knoxville Compare

Top Goalscorer Zarokostas S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Doyle M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Greenville Triumph 23 / 100
One Knoxville 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Greenville Triumph One Knoxville

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick One Knoxville Win (2)
Secondary Pick One Knoxville & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +53.4%
6.67
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.5%
1.89
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Greenville Triumph attacking → ← attacking One Knoxville

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Greenville Triumph scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

One Knoxville let in goals in 67% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Greenville Triumph went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

One Knoxville lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

26 Points in last 5 60
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00