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Greifswalder FC vs Erfurt

Germany Germany

Regionalliga Nordost 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Benyamina S.
(Penalty)
57'
Kaizer E.
58' Event
Hajrulla R.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Erfurt in this Regionalliga Nordost 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Erfurt.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Greifswalder FC
6%
Draws
90%
Erfurt
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Erfurt

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Erfurt lately — more wins on the board than Greifswalder FC.
  • Win probability leans Erfurt's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Regionalliga Nordost 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Erfurt have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Greifswalder FC Clean Sheet 11%
Erfurt Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Greifswalder FC Erfurt
Matches Played 25 28
Wins 8 16
Draws 9 5
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 2.88 2.25
Goals Conceded 1.38 1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.88 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 4, 2026 Regionalliga Nordost
Greifswalder FC vs Erfurt
1:2
Aug 10, 2025 Regionalliga Nordost
Erfurt vs Greifswalder FC
3:2
Apr 12, 2025 Regionalliga Nordost
Erfurt vs Greifswalder FC
2:0
Oct 20, 2024 Regionalliga Nordost
Greifswalder FC vs Erfurt
1:2
Mar 28, 2024 Regionalliga Nordost
Erfurt vs Greifswalder FC
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Greifswalder FC 10 / 100
Erfurt 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Greifswalder FC Erfurt

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ERF Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Greifswalder FC scored in 76% of their last 25 games.

Defensive concern: Erfurt conceded in 79% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Greifswalder FC stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Greifswalder FC VS Erfurt
2.88 Goals Scored 2.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Greifswalder FC

(Home)
26 Jul
Greifswalder FC
2 : 2
Hallescher
18 Jul
Phonix Lubeck
1 : 1
Greifswalder FC
15 Jul
Hansa Rostock
3 : 0
Greifswalder FC
11 Jul
Greifswalder FC
0 : 0
Lubeck
11 Jul
Greifswalder FC
5 : 3
TSG Neustrelitz
Page 1 of 5

Erfurt

(Away)
24 Jul
Erfurt
4 : 1
BFC Dynamo
18 Jul
Erfurt
1 : 0
Kassel
11 Jul
Erfurt
0 : 3
Mainz II
10 Jul
Erfurt
0 : 0
Nurnberg II
05 Jul
Union Muhlhausen
1 : 8
Erfurt
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Lokomotive Leipzig34233865:3072
2Jena34226665:3572
3Zwickau34197852:4464
4Hallescher34196963:3663
5Erfurt341710768:4761
6Altglienicke341411950:4053
7Chemnitzer341491156:5251
8BFC Preussen341481250:5550
9Magdeburg II341541561:5549
10Luckenwalde3411101336:4543
11Babelsberg341181567:6541
12BFC Dynamo3410101445:5040
13Chemie Leipzig341241843:4940
14Hertha Berlin II341171646:6040
15Greifswalder FC349111440:4538
16Meuselwitz34891744:6133
17Eilenburg344111935:6823
18Hertha Zehlendorf34282430:7914
Promotion - Regionalliga Nordost 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)