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Greifswalder FC vs Erfurt - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Regionalliga Nordost
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Greifswalder FC host Erfurt in the Regionalliga Nordost. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: Greifswalder FC at 2.03 goals for, 1.23 against; Erfurt at 2.82 for, 1.25 against. Head-to-head, Greifswalder FC have won 0 to Erfurt's 4, with 1 draws. They last met on Mar 4, 2026, ending 1:2. Model xG sits at 1.44 vs 2.38, favoring Erfurt. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Greifswalder FC
35%
Draws
38%
Erfurt
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Erfurt

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Erfurt have won more games recently than Greifswalder FC.
  • 38% — that's where the model lands on Erfurt taking it.
  • Regular Regionalliga Nordost form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Erfurt have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Greifswalder FC Clean Sheet 10%
Erfurt Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Greifswalder FC Erfurt
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 13 17
Draws 10 7
Losses 7 4
Goals Scored 2.03 2.82
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 4, 2026 Regionalliga Nordost
Greifswalder FC vs Erfurt
1:2
Aug 10, 2025 Regionalliga Nordost
Erfurt vs Greifswalder FC
3:2
Apr 12, 2025 Regionalliga Nordost
Erfurt vs Greifswalder FC
2:0
Oct 20, 2024 Regionalliga Nordost
Greifswalder FC vs Erfurt
1:2
Mar 28, 2024 Regionalliga Nordost
Erfurt vs Greifswalder FC
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Greifswalder FC 26 / 100
Erfurt 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Greifswalder FC Erfurt

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Erfurt Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Greifswalder FC's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Erfurt has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Greifswalder FC stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Greifswalder FC VS Erfurt
1.75 Goals Scored 3.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Greifswalder FC

(Home)
25 Sept
BFC Dynamo
1 : 0
Greifswalder FC
20 Sept
Greifswalder FC
3 : 1
Luckenwalde
16 Sept
Rsv Eintracht
1 : 2
Greifswalder FC
13 Sept
Greifswalder FC
3 : 3
Lokomotive Leipzig
30 Aug
SV Tasmania Berlin
2 : 2
Greifswalder FC
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Erfurt

(Away)
26 Sept
Lokomotive Leipzig
3 : 4
Erfurt
19 Sept
Erfurt
2 : 2
Aue
15 Sept
Hertha Berlin II
1 : 2
Erfurt
11 Sept
Erfurt
5 : 0
Rsv Eintracht
29 Aug
Erfurt
1 : 1
BFC Preussen
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Erfurt 11 8 3 0 36:11 27
2 Chemnitzer 11 8 2 1 25:5 26
3 BFC Dynamo 12 7 3 2 21:12 24
4 Jena 12 7 1 4 21:11 22
5 Hallescher 11 6 4 1 18:9 22
6 Altglienicke 12 6 3 3 20:15 21
7 Aue 11 6 3 2 20:16 21
8 Greifswalder FC 11 5 4 2 23:16 19
9 Zwickau 12 5 3 4 15:17 18
10 Lokomotive Leipzig 11 4 3 4 23:23 15
11 Magdeburg II 12 4 1 7 21:25 13
12 Babelsberg 11 3 3 5 14:17 12
13 BFC Preussen 12 2 5 5 15:18 11
14 Hertha Berlin II 12 2 4 6 10:22 10
15 Chemie Leipzig 12 2 3 7 13:20 9
16 Rsv Eintracht 11 1 3 7 13:29 6
17 Luckenwalde 12 2 0 10 12:29 6
18 SV Tasmania Berlin 12 1 2 9 13:38 5
Promotion - 3. Liga 2027/2028 (Main)