Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Gremio vs Corinthians

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Arena do Grêmio
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Gremio play Corinthians in the Serie A Betano. It looks like a close match. Recently, Gremio averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1 conceded. Corinthians averaged 1.03 goals scored and 0.87 conceded. In past meetings, Gremio won 0, Corinthians won 4, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 30, 2026 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Gremio and 1.31 for Corinthians. This points to a Corinthians double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Gremio
24%
Draws
40%
Corinthians
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Corinthians

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Gremio picked up more points recently compared to Corinthians.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 34%
Over 3.5 Goals 20%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
Gremio Clean Sheet 18%
Corinthians Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gremio Corinthians
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 13
Draws 9 8
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.27 1.03
Goals Conceded 1 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 Serie A Betano
Gremio vs Corinthians
1:3
Nov 2, 2025 Serie A Betano
Corinthians vs Gremio
2:0
Jun 12, 2025 Serie A Betano
Gremio vs Corinthians
1:1
Dec 8, 2024 Serie A Betano
Gremio vs Corinthians
0:3
Aug 8, 2024 Copa Betano do Brasil
Gremio vs Corinthians
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gremio Compare

Top Goalscorer Gabriel Mec
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Corinthians Compare

Top Goalscorer Andre
2 Goals
Assists Leader Kaio Cesar
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gremio 36 / 100
Corinthians 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gremio Corinthians

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Corinthians or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +21.4%
3.57
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Gremio attacking → ← attacking Corinthians

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gremio scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Corinthians let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Gremio went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Corinthians lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 47
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Palmeiras18125130:1341
2Flamengo RJ17104331:1634
3Fluminense1894528:2331
4Athletico-PR1893624:1830
5Bragantino1892725:1929
6Bahia1775525:2326
7Coritiba1875624:2426
8Sao Paulo1874723:2025
9Atletico-MG1873822:2324
10Corinthians1866618:1924
11Cruzeiro1866624:2824
12Botafogo RJ1764731:3122
13Vitoria1764721:2522
14Internacional1856721:2221
15Santos1856726:2921
16Gremio1856720:2321
17Vasco1855822:2920
18Remo1846821:2918
19Mirassol1744918:2416
20Chapecoense-SC17161017:339