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Gremio vs Cruzeiro

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Carlos Vinicius
21' Event
Carlos Vinicius
27' Event
Sinisterra L.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Gremio and Cruzeiro finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gremio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Gremio
39%
Draws
30%
Cruzeiro
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Cruzeiro carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Gremio Clean Sheet 15%
Cruzeiro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gremio Cruzeiro
Matches Played 26 29
Wins 10 15
Draws 8 8
Losses 8 6
Goals Scored 1.88 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Club Friendly
Gremio vs Cruzeiro
3:1
Apr 18, 2026 Serie A Betano
Cruzeiro vs Gremio
2:0
Nov 5, 2025 Serie A Betano
Gremio vs Cruzeiro
0:1
Jul 13, 2025 Serie A Betano
Cruzeiro vs Gremio
4:1
Nov 28, 2024 Serie A Betano
Cruzeiro vs Gremio
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gremio Compare

Top Goalscorer Carlos Vinicius
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nardoni J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Cruzeiro Compare

Top Goalscorer Sinisterra L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gremio 31 / 100
Cruzeiro 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gremio Cruzeiro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CRU Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gremio's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Cruzeiro let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

Gremio went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Gremio VS Cruzeiro
1.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Gremio

(Home)
17 Jul
Mirassol
2 : 1
Gremio
12 Jul
Gremio
3 : 1
Cruzeiro
04 Jul
Gremio
1 : 2
Chapecoense-SC
27 Jun
FC Cascavel
1 : 2
Gremio
30 May
Gremio
1 : 3
Corinthians
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Cruzeiro

(Away)
23 Jul
Internacional
1 : 2
Cruzeiro
12 Jul
Gremio
3 : 1
Cruzeiro
04 Jul
Cruzeiro
2 : 0
Defensor Sp.
31 May
Cruzeiro
1 : 1
Fluminense
29 May
Cruzeiro
4 : 0
Barcelona SC
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