Sport Picks

Brazil

Gaucho Arena do Grêmio

EC Sao Jose (PA)

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Gremio play EC Sao Jose (PA) in the Gaucho. It looks like a close match. Recently, Gremio averaged 1.24 goals scored and 0.86 conceded. EC Sao Jose (PA) averaged 0.86 goals scored and 0.95 conceded. In past meetings, Gremio won 3, EC Sao Jose (PA) won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 15, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Gremio and 1.13 for EC Sao Jose (PA). This points to a Gremio double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

Gremio

28%

Draws

30%

EC Sao Jose (PA)

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Gremio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Gremio picked up more points recently compared to EC Sao Jose (PA).
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 59%

Over 2.5 Goals 36%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%

Gremio Clean Sheet 21%

EC Sao Jose (PA) Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 53%

Second Half Goal 56%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Gremio	EC Sao Jose (PA)
Matches Played	29	22
Wins	12	7
Draws	9	8
Losses	8	7
Goals Scored	1.24	0.86
Goals Conceded	0.86	0.95
Expected Goals (xG)	1.75	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 15, 2026 Gaucho

Gremio vs EC Sao Jose (PA)

Possession: 57% - 52% Cards: 3 - 1

0:1

Jul 8, 2025 Recopa Gaucho

Gremio vs EC Sao Jose (PA)

Possession: 45% - 45% Cards: 3 - 1

2:0

Sep 4, 2024 Copa FGF

Gremio vs EC Sao Jose (PA)

Possession: 46% - 42% Cards: 1 - 3

0:0

Jan 25, 2024 Gaucho

Gremio vs EC Sao Jose (PA)

Possession: 44% - 59% Cards: 3 - 2

4:1

Jan 29, 2023 Gaucho

EC Sao Jose (PA) vs Gremio

Possession: 57% - 42% Cards: 0 - 1

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gremio Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35

Avg xA / game 0.88

EC Sao Jose (PA) Compare

Top Goalscorer Barcellos Arantes R.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gremio 42 / 100

EC Sao Jose (PA) 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Gremio EC Sao Jose (PA)

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Gremio or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23.5%

2.94

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +19.9%

3.33

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Gremio attacking → ← attacking EC Sao Jose (PA)

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gremio scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

EC Sao Jose (PA) let in goals in 55% of their last 22 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Gremio went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

EC Sao Jose (PA) lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 29

1.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.00

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Internacional	6	5	0	1	14:5	15
2	EC Juventude	6	3	3	0	8:3	12
3	EC Sao Jose (PA)	6	2	3	1	4:3	9
4	Sao Luiz	6	1	4	1	6:10	7
5	Avenida	6	1	2	3	4:9	5
6	Guarany de Bage	6	1	2	3	4:10	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gremio	6	3	1	2	14:6	10
2	SER Caxias do Sul	6	2	1	3	8:5	7
3	Ypiranga FC	6	1	4	1	7:9	7
4	Novo Hamburgo	6	1	3	2	5:5	6
5	Monsoon	6	1	3	2	5:11	6
6	Inter Santa Maria	6	1	2	3	1:4	5