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Gremio vs Novo Hamburgo

Brazil Brazil

Gaucho Arena do Grêmio
Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Romercio
31'
Rone Carlos
39'
Joao Marcus

AI Match Summary

Gremio in this Gaucho matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gremio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Gremio
40%
Draws
29%
Novo Hamburgo
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Gremio lately — more wins on the board than Novo Hamburgo.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Gremio have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Gremio Clean Sheet 20%
Novo Hamburgo Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gremio Novo Hamburgo
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 11
Draws 9 10
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 0.5 0
Goals Conceded 0.38 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2026 Gaucho
Gremio vs Novo Hamburgo
1:0
Feb 7, 2024 Gaucho
Gremio vs Novo Hamburgo
2:0
Feb 24, 2023 Gaucho
Gremio vs Novo Hamburgo
6:1
Mar 5, 2022 Gaucho
Novo Hamburgo vs Gremio
1:1
Apr 18, 2021 Gaucho
Gremio vs Novo Hamburgo
3:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gremio 32 / 100
Novo Hamburgo 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gremio Novo Hamburgo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Gremio's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Novo Hamburgo conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: Gremio stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Gremio VS -
0.5 Goals Scored 0
0.38 Goals Conceded 0
25% Over 1.5 0%
0% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Internacional3
Sao Luiz1
SER Caxias do Sul0
Ypiranga FC2
EC Juventude3
EC Sao Jose (PA)2
Gremio1
Novo Hamburgo0
Semi-finals
Internacional7
Ypiranga FC0
EC Juventude2
Gremio3
Final
Internacional1
Gremio4