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Grobina vs Ogre United - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Grobiņas pilsētas stadions, Grobina
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
11:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Grobina host Ogre United in the Virsliga. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Recent numbers: Grobina at 0.72 goals for, 1.79 against; Ogre United at 1.14 for, 2.59 against. Head-to-head, Grobina have won 0 to Ogre United's 0, with 3 draws. They last met on Jul 27, 2026, ending 2:2. The numbers (1.69 xG vs 1.88) point toward Grobina. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Grobina
30%
Draws
31%
Ogre United
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Grobina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Ogre United have won more games recently than Grobina.
  • Grobina are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Grobina Clean Sheet 10%
Ogre United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Grobina Ogre United
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 4 5
Draws 10 5
Losses 15 19
Goals Scored 0.72 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.79 2.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 27, 2026 Virsliga
Grobina vs Ogre United
2:2
May 25, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs Grobina
1:1
Apr 13, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs Grobina
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Grobina 38 / 100
Ogre United 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Grobina Ogre United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Grobina Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ogre United's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.67 goals as a typical output.

Grobina went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Difficult form: Ogre United registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Grobina VS Ogre United
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
2.63 Goals Conceded 2.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Grobina

(Home)
20 Sept
Tukums 2000
1 : 1
Grobina
12 Sept
Grobina
0 : 0
Jelgava
06 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Grobina
29 Aug
Grobina
1 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
21 Aug
FK Liepaja
3 : 1
Grobina
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Ogre United

(Away)
20 Sept
Ogre United
1 : 0
Super Nova
16 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Ogre United
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
30 Aug
Ogre United
0 : 3
RFS
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)