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Guadeloupe vs Saint Kitts and Nevis

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Phaeton M.
Assist: Senneville C.
22'
Sterling-James O.
27'
Burley A.

AI Match Summary

The CONCACAF Nations League 2023/2024 game between Guadeloupe and Saint Kitts and Nevis finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Guadeloupe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Guadeloupe
40%
Draws
29%
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Saint Kitts and Nevis haven't matched Guadeloupe's recent run of results.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular CONCACAF Nations League 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Guadeloupe here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Guadeloupe Clean Sheet 13%
Saint Kitts and Nevis Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guadeloupe Saint Kitts and Nevis
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 18 12
Draws 2 4
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 2 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.43 3.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.43 3.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 19, 2023 CONCACAF Nations League
Guadeloupe vs Saint Kitts and Nevis
5:0
Sep 7, 2023 CONCACAF Nations League
Saint Kitts and Nevis vs Guadeloupe
1:2
Oct 22, 2010 Caribbean Cup
Saint Kitts and Nevis vs Guadeloupe
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guadeloupe Compare

Top Goalscorer Arconte T.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Phaeton M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Saint Kitts and Nevis Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guadeloupe 31 / 100
Saint Kitts and Nevis 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guadeloupe Saint Kitts and Nevis

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Saint Kitts and Nevis let in goals in 81% of their last 32 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.67 goals when they meet.

Guadeloupe's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Recent resilience: Guadeloupe stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Guadeloupe VS Saint Kitts and Nevis
2 Goals Scored 1.88
1.43 Goals Conceded 3.13
57% Over 1.5 100%
57% Over 2.5 100%
43% Over 3.5 88%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Guadeloupe650116:315
2Saint Lucia631210:610
3Sint Maarten62046:156
4Saint Kitts and Nevis61144:124
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Nicaragua651017:116
2Dominican Republic631214:610
3Montserrat63039:149
4Barbados60067:260
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1French Guiana631210:610
2Saint Vincent and the Grenadines630313:149
3Bermuda62228:98
4Belize62135:77
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Guyana550020:515
2Puerto Rico640222:1012
3Antigua and Barbuda61149:224
4Bahamas50147:211