Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Gualaceo vs EL Nacional

Ecuador Ecuador

Serie B Estadio Jorge Andrade
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Gualaceo play EL Nacional in the Serie B. Gualaceo are favorites here. Recently, Gualaceo averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.28 conceded. EL Nacional averaged 0.93 goals scored and 2.21 conceded. In past meetings, Gualaceo won 2, EL Nacional won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 2, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Gualaceo and 0.63 for EL Nacional. This points to a Gualaceo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Gualaceo
16%
Draws
27%
EL Nacional
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Gualaceo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence
  • Gualaceo picked up more points recently compared to EL Nacional.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 0.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 49%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Gualaceo Clean Sheet 29%
EL Nacional Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gualaceo EL Nacional
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 4
Draws 7 6
Losses 11 19
Goals Scored 0.93 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.28 2.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Serie B
Gualaceo vs EL Nacional
2:0
Nov 12, 2023 Liga Pro
EL Nacional vs Gualaceo
4:2
Jun 4, 2023 Liga Pro
Gualaceo vs EL Nacional
3:4
Oct 7, 2021 Serie B
EL Nacional vs Gualaceo
4:2
Aug 11, 2021 Serie B
Gualaceo vs EL Nacional
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gualaceo Compare

Top Goalscorer Salazar R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lugo Cortez J. P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

EL Nacional Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gualaceo 57 / 100
EL Nacional 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gualaceo EL Nacional

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gualaceo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Gualaceo & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +16.3%
2.04
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Gualaceo attacking → ← attacking EL Nacional

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gualaceo scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

EL Nacional let in goals in 93% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.40 goals.

Gualaceo went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

EL Nacional lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

40 Points in last 5 18
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.63
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Nueve de Octubre1585219:1129
2Atletico FC1568117:1226
3Independiente Juniors1566317:1124
4CD Cuenca Juniors1565417:1823
5Vinotinto1555520:1320
6San Antonio1547418:1519
7LDU Portoviejo1554614:1919
8Cumbaya1546518:1618
9Dep. Santo Domingo1556412:1018
10Gualaceo1565413:1017
1122 de Julio153398:216
12EL Nacional1504119:261