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Gualaceo vs Nueve de Octubre Prediction & H2H Stats

Ecuador Ecuador

Serie B Estadio Jorge Andrade, Azogues
Our Tip

Match Events

71' Event
Lugo J.
87'

AI Match Summary

The Serie B game between Gualaceo and Nueve de Octubre finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gualaceo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Gualaceo
20%
Draws
33%
Nueve de Octubre
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Gualaceo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Gualaceo come out ahead of Nueve de Octubre on wins alone.
  • Model gives Gualaceo a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.8%
Gualaceo Clean Sheet 68%
Nueve de Octubre Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gualaceo Nueve de Octubre
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 11
Draws 9 12
Losses 6 6
Goals Scored 1.14 1.14
Goals Conceded 0.62 0.72
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2026 Serie B
Nueve de Octubre vs Gualaceo
0:0
Apr 26, 2026 Serie B
Gualaceo vs Nueve de Octubre
1:0
Oct 29, 2025 Serie B
Gualaceo vs Nueve de Octubre
1:5
Aug 26, 2025 Serie B
Nueve de Octubre vs Gualaceo
3:0
Jun 27, 2025 Serie B
Nueve de Octubre vs Gualaceo
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gualaceo Compare

Top Goalscorer Lugo J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Nueve de Octubre Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gualaceo 46 / 100
Nueve de Octubre 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gualaceo Nueve de Octubre

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gualaceo scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Gualaceo remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Nueve de Octubre's defensive record shows goals conceded in 52% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Gualaceo VS Nueve de Octubre
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
0.25 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Gualaceo

(Home)
03 Oct
Gualaceo
4 : 2
22 de Julio
27 Sept
Dep. Santo Domingo
0 : 1
Gualaceo
25 Sept
Gualaceo
0 : 2
Independiente del Valle
19 Sept
Gualaceo
0 : 0
LDU Portoviejo
10 Sept
Cumbaya
0 : 1
Gualaceo
Page 1 of 6

Nueve de Octubre

(Away)
03 Oct
Nueve de Octubre
0 : 1
Atletico FC
26 Sept
Nueve de Octubre
3 : 0
San Antonio
17 Sept
Vinotinto
1 : 0
Nueve de Octubre
12 Sept
Nueve de Octubre
3 : 1
Independiente Juniors
04 Sept
Atletico FC
2 : 2
Nueve de Octubre
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente Juniors 22 10 9 3 28:16 39
2 Atletico FC 22 9 11 2 25:14 38
3 Nueve de Octubre 22 9 10 3 22:14 37
4 CD Cuenca Juniors 22 9 7 6 20:23 34
5 Vinotinto 22 8 7 7 25:17 31
6 San Antonio 22 7 10 5 24:21 31
7 LDU Portoviejo 22 7 6 9 17:22 27
8 Cumbaya 22 5 11 6 22:22 26
9 Dep. Santo Domingo 22 6 10 6 17:16 25
10 Gualaceo 22 7 8 7 19:16 23
11 EL Nacional 22 2 6 14 15:32 9
12 22 de Julio 22 4 3 15 10:31 9
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Serie B (Relegation Group)