Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Guanacasteca vs Alajuelense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division 2024/2025 Estadio Chorotega, Nicoya
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Mora J.
19'
Martinez C.
24' Event
Moya J.

AI Match Summary

The Primera Division 2024/2025 game between Guanacasteca and Alajuelense finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Guanacasteca
15%
Draws
85%
Alajuelense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alajuelense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Alajuelense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Alajuelense a 85% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Primera Division 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Guanacasteca Clean Sheet 15%
Alajuelense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guanacasteca Alajuelense
Matches Played 30 43
Wins 7 19
Draws 8 11
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 0.77 1.56
Goals Conceded 1.47 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.55
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 13, 2025 Primera Division
Guanacasteca vs Alajuelense
1:1
Feb 16, 2025 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs Guanacasteca
1:0
Nov 30, 2024 Primera Division
Guanacasteca vs Alajuelense
1:0
Sep 8, 2024 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs Guanacasteca
4:0
May 12, 2024 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs Guanacasteca
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guanacasteca Compare

Top Goalscorer Mora J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Alajuelense Compare

Top Goalscorer Moya J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.41
Avg xA / game 0.86

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guanacasteca 10 / 100
Alajuelense 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guanacasteca Alajuelense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alajuelense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alajuelense has conceded goals in 70% of their last 43 outings.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Guanacasteca scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Away concern: Alajuelense has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Alajuelense
0 Goals Scored 2
0 Goals Conceded 1
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Guanacasteca

(Home)
07 May
Guanacasteca
0 : 3
Herediano
04 May
Saprissa
3 : 0
Guanacasteca
26 Apr
Guanacasteca
0 : 3
Sporting FC
20 Apr
Cartagines
3 : 0
Guanacasteca
15 Apr
Zeledon
3 : 0
Guanacasteca
Page 1 of 6

Alajuelense

(Away)
20 Sept
Alajuelense
5 : 0
Inter San Carlos
18 Sept
Alajuelense
3 : 1
Marathon
14 Sept
Cartagines
3 : 1
Alajuelense
11 Sept
Marathon
2 : 2
Alajuelense
06 Sept
Alajuelense
0 : 2
Saprissa
Page 1 of 9

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Herediano 22 13 7 2 38:18 46
2 Alajuelense 22 10 12 0 28:12 42
3 Puntarenas FC 22 11 8 3 29:18 41
4 Saprissa 22 11 6 5 30:18 39
5 Cartagines 22 11 5 6 29:16 38
6 Sporting FC 22 9 4 9 25:28 31
7 Liberia 22 7 3 12 26:26 24
8 Santos De Guapiles 22 6 6 10 26:33 24
9 Zeledon 22 6 5 11 16:28 23
10 San Carlos 22 4 7 11 16:23 19
11 Guanacasteca 22 3 7 12 12:33 16
12 Santa Ana 22 2 8 12 22:44 14
Promotion - Primera Division 2024/2025 (Clausura - Play Offs)