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Guarani-MG vs Villa Real

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 3 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Nikollas Sena
34' Event
Esquerdinha
45' Event
Esquerdinha

AI Match Summary

The Mineiro 3 2024 game between Guarani-MG and Villa Real finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Guarani-MG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Guarani-MG
20%
Draws
40%
Villa Real
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Villa Real haven't matched Guarani-MG's recent run of results.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Guarani-MG taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Guarani-MG have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 23.6%
Guarani-MG Clean Sheet 68%
Villa Real Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guarani-MG Villa Real
Matches Played 33 26
Wins 15 11
Draws 7 4
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.33 1
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.12
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 14, 2024 Mineiro 3
Guarani-MG vs Villa Real
4:0
Sep 8, 2024 Mineiro 3
Villa Real vs Guarani-MG
1:2
Oct 8, 2023 Mineiro 3
Villa Real vs Guarani-MG
0:2
Sep 23, 2023 Mineiro 3
Guarani-MG vs Villa Real
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guarani-MG Compare

Top Goalscorer Esquerdinha
2 Goals
Assists Leader Nikollas Sena
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Villa Real Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarani-MG 95 / 100
Villa Real 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guarani-MG Villa Real

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guarani-MG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Guarani-MG scored in 61% of their last 33 outings.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Solid form: Guarani-MG remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Villa Real has conceded goals in 50% of their last 26 outings.

Scoring Trends

Guarani-MG VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Guarani-MG

(Home)
12 Jul
Guarani-MG
2 : 4
Boa
04 Jul
Patrocinense
0 : 1
Guarani-MG
01 Jul
Mamore
2 : 2
Guarani-MG
27 Jun
Guarani-MG
2 : 0
Caldense
23 Jun
Uberaba
2 : 1
Guarani-MG
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Villa Real

(Away)
19 Oct
Villa Real
1 : 1
Inter de Minas
14 Oct
Guarani-MG
4 : 0
Villa Real
07 Oct
Tres Coracoes
0 : 3
Villa Real
02 Oct
Villa Real
2 : 0
Pocos de Caldas
29 Sept
Tupynambas
6 : 0
Villa Real
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Coimbra Esporte Clube 8 6 2 0 21:7 20
2 Contagem 8 4 3 1 14:6 15
3 America TO 8 4 1 3 9:6 13
4 Boston City 8 1 2 5 5:18 5
5 Social 8 0 2 6 3:15 2
Promotion - Mineiro 3 2024 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Guarani-MG 10 9 0 1 21:4 27
2 Tupynambas 10 7 0 3 29:8 21
3 Inter de Minas 10 4 3 3 19:17 15
4 Villa Real 10 4 1 5 15:20 13
5 Pocos de Caldas 10 2 2 6 12:20 8
6 Tres Coracoes 10 1 0 9 5:32 3
Promotion - Mineiro 3 2024 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Essube 8 5 1 2 20:10 16
2 Uberaba 8 5 1 2 18:11 16
3 Paracatu 8 4 2 2 18:6 14
4 Nacional Uberaba 8 4 0 4 17:14 12
5 Araguari 8 0 0 8 1:33 0
6 Araxa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Mineiro 3 2024 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams