Sport Picks
Guarani vs Sportivo Ameliano
Paraguay
Copa de Primera Estadio Rogelio Livieres, Asunción 
Match Events
21'
21'
Coronel P.
31'
31'
Vera E.
33'
33'
Falabella A.
Own Goal
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-0, with Guarani advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
42%
20%
38%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Guarani
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
67%
/ Medium Confidence
- Sportivo Ameliano carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Guarani's way, sitting at 42%.
- Sportivo Ameliano arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Guarani, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Guarani Clean Sheet 20%
Sportivo Ameliano Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Guarani | Sportivo Ameliano |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 9 | 10 |
| Draws | 9 | 10 |
| Losses | 10 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.63 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.63 | 1.38 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 16, 2026 Copa de Primera
Guarani vs Sportivo Ameliano
1:0
Mar 15, 2026 Copa de Primera
Sportivo Ameliano vs Guarani
0:0
Oct 12, 2025 Copa de Primera
Sportivo Ameliano vs Guarani
1:1
Jul 31, 2025 Copa de Primera
Guarani vs Sportivo Ameliano
4:1
May 18, 2025 Copa de Primera
Guarani vs Sportivo Ameliano
1:3
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Guarani 42 / 100
Sportivo Ameliano 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Guarani Sportivo Ameliano
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Guarani scored in 64% of their last 28 games.
Defensive concern: Sportivo Ameliano conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.
Games between these two average 2.40 goals.
Solid form: Guarani remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Guarani VS Sportivo Ameliano
1 Goals Scored 1.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
38% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Guarani
(Home) 23 May
Recoleta
2 : 1 Guarani
16 May
Guarani
1 : 0 Sportivo Ameliano
11 May
Cerro Porteno
0 : 0 Guarani
03 May
Guarani
0 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
26 Apr
2 de Mayo
2 : 2 Guarani
Page 1 of 6
16 May
Guarani
1 : 0 Sportivo Ameliano
03 May
Guarani
0 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
18 Apr
Guarani
2 : 1 Sp. Luqueno
05 Apr
Guarani
1 : 0 Libertad Asuncion
29 Mar
Guarani
0 : 0 Sportivo Trinidense
Page 1 of 3
Sportivo Ameliano
(Away) 24 May
Sportivo Ameliano
1 : 2 Sportivo Trinidense
16 May
Guarani
1 : 0 Sportivo Ameliano
11 May
Sportivo Ameliano
3 : 2 Recoleta
03 May
Olimpia Asuncion
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
24 Apr
Cerro Porteno
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
Page 1 of 6
16 May
Guarani
1 : 0 Sportivo Ameliano
03 May
Olimpia Asuncion
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
24 Apr
Cerro Porteno
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
10 Apr
2 de Mayo
1 : 2 Sportivo Ameliano
31 Mar
San Lorenzo
1 : 2 Sportivo Ameliano
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 22 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 37:17 | 49 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 31:22 | 39 |
| 3 | Cerro Porteno | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 30:22 | 38 |
| 4 | Sportivo Ameliano | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 27:21 | 33 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 30:24 | 32 |
| 6 | Libertad Asuncion | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 34:26 | 31 |
| 7 | Guarani | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 27:23 | 29 |
| 8 | Recoleta | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 35:32 | 28 |
| 9 | Rubio Nu | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 15:26 | 23 |
| 10 | 2 de Mayo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 18:35 | 22 |
| 11 | Sp. Luqueno | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 24:33 | 20 |
| 12 | San Lorenzo | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 14:41 | 15 |
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)