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Guarani U20 vs Desportivo U20

Brazil Brazil

Paulista U20 2025
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AI Match Summary

Guarani U20 play Desportivo U20 in the Paulista U20 2025. Guarani U20 are favorites here. Recently, Guarani U20 averaged 1.81 goals scored and 0.84 conceded. Desportivo U20 averaged 1.35 goals scored and 1.52 conceded. In past meetings, Guarani U20 won 2, Desportivo U20 won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Sep 13, 2025 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.11 for Guarani U20 and 1.04 for Desportivo U20. This points to a Guarani U20 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
Guarani U20
15%
Draws
29%
Desportivo U20
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Guarani U20

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence
  • Guarani U20 picked up more points recently compared to Desportivo U20.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.11 vs 1.04 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
Guarani U20 Clean Sheet 22%
Desportivo U20 Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 62%
Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guarani U20 Desportivo U20
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 22 12
Draws 1 6
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 1.81 1.35
Goals Conceded 0.84 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.20
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.60

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2025 Paulista U20
Guarani U20 vs Desportivo U20
2:0
Sep 5, 2025 Paulista U20
Desportivo U20 vs Guarani U20
0:1
May 9, 2025 Paulista U20
Desportivo U20 vs Guarani U20
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guarani U20 Compare

Top Goalscorer Kewen
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Desportivo U20 Compare

Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.67

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarani U20 55 / 100
Desportivo U20 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guarani U20 Desportivo U20

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guarani U20 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Guarani U20 & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +16.5%
2.08
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Guarani U20 attacking → ← attacking Desportivo U20

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guarani U20 scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Desportivo U20 let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.33 goals.

Guarani U20 went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Desportivo U20 lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

67 Points in last 5 42
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.20
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.60