Sport Picks
Guarani vs Ponte Preta
Brazil
Paulista Estádio Brinco de Ouro, Campinas 
Match Events
21'
21'
Caique Franca
24'
24'
Sub
Nathan Melo In: Claus M.
Out: Nathan Melo
33'
33'
Sub
Gustavo Telles In: Elvis
Out: Gustavo Telles
AI Match Summary
Guarani in this Paulista matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Guarani.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
58%
30%
12%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Guarani
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
58%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Guarani lately — more wins on the board than Ponte Preta.
- 58% — that's where the model lands on Guarani taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 93%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Guarani Clean Sheet 68%
Ponte Preta Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Guarani | Ponte Preta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 4 |
| Draws | 11 | 4 |
| Losses | 9 | 22 |
| Goals Scored | 1.4 | 0.67 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.2 | 1.87 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.73 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 31, 2026 Paulista
Guarani vs Ponte Preta
1:0
Oct 11, 2025 Serie C
Ponte Preta vs Guarani
2:0
Sep 6, 2025 Serie C
Guarani vs Ponte Preta
0:1
Aug 2, 2025 Serie C
Ponte Preta vs Guarani
1:1
Feb 9, 2025 Paulista
Ponte Preta vs Guarani
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Guarani Compare
Top Goalscorer Herbert
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.33
Avg xA / game 0.86
Ponte Preta Compare
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Guarani 95 / 100
Ponte Preta 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Guarani Ponte Preta
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Guarani Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Guarani scored in 83% of their last 30 games.
Ponte Preta let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.
Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Guarani stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Guarani VS Ponte Preta
1.57 Goals Scored 0.75
1.86 Goals Conceded 1.88
86% Over 1.5 100%
86% Over 2.5 38%
71% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Guarani
(Home) 29 Aug
Guarani
2 : 2 Brusque
22 Aug
Botafogo PB
3 : 1 Guarani
17 Aug
Guarani
2 : 2 Ypiranga FC
10 Aug
Anapolis
2 : 1 Guarani
27 Jul
Guarani
3 : 1 Internacional de Limeira
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29 Aug
Guarani
2 : 2 Brusque
17 Aug
Guarani
2 : 2 Ypiranga FC
27 Jul
Guarani
3 : 1 Internacional de Limeira
04 Jul
Guarani
0 : 0 Floresta EC
13 Jun
Guarani
2 : 1 SER Caxias do Sul
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Ponte Preta
(Away) 30 Aug
America MG
2 : 0 Ponte Preta
23 Aug
Ponte Preta
0 : 2 Avai
19 Aug
Vila Nova FC
6 : 0 Ponte Preta
14 Aug
Ponte Preta
1 : 1 Nautico
07 Aug
Ceara
2 : 0 Ponte Preta
Page 1 of 6
30 Aug
America MG
2 : 0 Ponte Preta
19 Aug
Vila Nova FC
6 : 0 Ponte Preta
07 Aug
Ceara
2 : 0 Ponte Preta
22 Jul
Operario-PR
3 : 2 Ponte Preta
03 Jul
Fortaleza
2 : 0 Ponte Preta
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16:10 | 16 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8:7 | 16 |
| 3 | Bragantino | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 14:2 | 16 |
| 4 | Portuguesa | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11:7 | 15 |
| 5 | Corinthians | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10:6 | 14 |
| 6 | Sao Paulo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11:12 | 13 |
| 7 | Capivariano | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7:10 | 13 |
| 8 | Santos | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12:7 | 12 |
| 9 | Guarani | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6:7 | 12 |
| 10 | Botafogo SP | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5:9 | 11 |
| 11 | Mirassol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10:8 | 8 |
| 12 | Primavera EC | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14:15 | 8 |
| 13 | Sao Bernardo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | 8 |
| 14 | Noroeste | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 11:11 | 8 |
| 15 | Velo Clube | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2:13 | 5 |
| 16 | Ponte Preta | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3:14 | 1 |
Promotion - Paulista (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista A2 2027 (Main)
