Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Guarani vs Recoleta

Paraguay Paraguay

Copa de Primera Estadio Rogelio Livieres, Asunción
Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Espinola J.
Assist: Rios P.
46'
Sub
Romero N. In: Fernandez D.
Out: Romero N.
50' Event
Llano J.
Assist: Rodriguez D.

AI Match Summary

Guarani in this Copa de Primera tie, finishing 3-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Guarani
44%
Draws
20%
Recoleta
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Recoleta lately — more wins on the board than Guarani.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Recoleta arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Guarani, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Guarani here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Guarani Clean Sheet 17%
Recoleta Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guarani Recoleta
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 9 10
Draws 9 11
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 0.63 1.88
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Copa de Primera
Recoleta vs Guarani
2:1
Mar 18, 2026 Copa de Primera
Guarani vs Recoleta
3:1
Oct 18, 2025 Copa de Primera
Guarani vs Recoleta
2:1
Aug 4, 2025 Copa de Primera
Recoleta vs Guarani
2:3
May 2, 2025 Copa de Primera
Recoleta vs Guarani
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guarani Compare

Top Goalscorer Llano J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fernandez F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Recoleta Compare

Top Goalscorer Espinola J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarani 36 / 100
Recoleta 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guarani Recoleta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick REC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Guarani scored in 64% of their last 28 games.

Recoleta has conceded goals in 77% of their last 31 outings.

Recent resilience: Guarani stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Guarani VS Recoleta
0.63 Goals Scored 1.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
38% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Guarani

(Home)
26 Jul
Guarani
1 : 2
Sp. Luqueno
23 May
Recoleta
2 : 1
Guarani
16 May
Guarani
1 : 0
Sportivo Ameliano
11 May
Cerro Porteno
0 : 0
Guarani
03 May
Guarani
0 : 1
Nacional Asuncion
Page 1 of 6

Recoleta

(Away)
25 Jul
Recoleta
1 : 1
San Lorenzo
27 May
San Lorenzo
0 : 1
Recoleta
23 May
Recoleta
2 : 1
Guarani
20 May
Dep. Cuenca
2 : 2
Recoleta
15 May
Olimpia Asuncion
3 : 2
Recoleta
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Olimpia Asuncion22154337:1749
2Nacional Asuncion22109331:2239
3Cerro Porteno22115630:2238
4Sportivo Ameliano2289527:2133
5Sportivo Trinidense2288630:2432
6Libertad Asuncion2294934:2631
7Guarani2278727:2329
8Recoleta22841035:3228
9Rubio Nu22651115:2623
102 de Mayo22571018:3522
11Sp. Luqueno22551224:3320
12San Lorenzo22361314:4115
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)