Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Guarany SE vs Falcon

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2025
Guarany SE Logo

Guarany SE

2 - 0
FT
Falcon Logo

Falcon

Our Tip

Match Events

74' Event
Rayamersson
88'
Ramos
90' Event
Paulo Henrique
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Guarany SE in this Sergipano 2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Guarany SE.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Guarany SE
20%
Draws
57%
Falcon
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Falcon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Falcon lately — more wins on the board than Guarany SE.
  • Win probability leans Falcon's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Falcon have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Guarany SE Clean Sheet 16%
Falcon Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guarany SE Falcon
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 14
Draws 7 3
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1.1 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 29, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Falcon vs Guarany SE
3:0
Feb 11, 2026 Sergipano
Guarany SE vs Falcon
0:1
Feb 15, 2025 Sergipano
Guarany SE vs Falcon
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guarany SE Compare

Top Goalscorer Rayamersson
1 Goals
Assists Leader Paulo Henrique
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Falcon Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarany SE 11 / 100
Falcon 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guarany SE Falcon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Falcon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Guarany SE scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Falcon's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 30 matches.

Guarany SE went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Guarany SE VS Falcon
0.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Guarany SE

(Home)
13 Aug
Guarany SE
0 : 1
Desportiva Aracaju
08 Aug
America de Propria
2 : 3
Guarany SE
05 Aug
Lagarto
2 : 0
Guarany SE
01 Aug
Guarany SE
1 : 1
Atletico Gloriense
29 Jul
Falcon
3 : 0
Guarany SE
Page 1 of 6

Falcon

(Away)
30 Aug
Falcon
0 : 2
Desportiva Aracaju
23 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
0 : 0
Falcon
18 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
Atletico Gloriense
13 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
America de Propria
08 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 1
Falcon
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Confianca 9 6 2 1 26:8 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 4 0 18:7 19
3 Lagarto 9 5 2 2 20:8 17
4 America de Propria 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 4 1 4 9:19 13
6 Falcon 9 4 0 5 11:15 12
7 Sergipe 9 3 2 4 10:11 11
8 Dorense 9 2 2 5 7:12 8
9 Barra SE 9 2 1 6 8:27 7
10 Carmopolis 9 0 3 6 10:16 3
Promotion - Sergipano 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano 2025 (Play Offs)