Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Guarany SE vs Falcon

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano
Our Tip

Match Events

83' Event
Andre Castro

AI Match Summary

The Sergipano game between Guarany SE and Falcon finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Falcon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Guarany SE
20%
Draws
57%
Falcon
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Falcon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Falcon come out ahead of Guarany SE on wins alone.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Falcon taking it.
  • Regular Sergipano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Falcon here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Guarany SE Clean Sheet 16%
Falcon Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guarany SE Falcon
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 11 14
Draws 7 3
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.1 1.06
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 29, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Falcon vs Guarany SE
3:0
Feb 11, 2026 Sergipano
Guarany SE vs Falcon
0:1
Feb 15, 2025 Sergipano
Guarany SE vs Falcon
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guarany SE Compare

Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Falcon Compare

Top Goalscorer Andre Castro
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarany SE 11 / 100
Falcon 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guarany SE Falcon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Falcon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Guarany SE's goal record stands at 57% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Falcon conceded in 58% of 31 recent games.

Solid form: Guarany SE remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Guarany SE VS Falcon
0.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Guarany SE

(Home)
13 Aug
Guarany SE
0 : 1
Desportiva Aracaju
08 Aug
America de Propria
2 : 3
Guarany SE
05 Aug
Lagarto
2 : 0
Guarany SE
01 Aug
Guarany SE
1 : 1
Atletico Gloriense
29 Jul
Falcon
3 : 0
Guarany SE
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Falcon

(Away)
30 Aug
Falcon
0 : 2
Desportiva Aracaju
23 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
0 : 0
Falcon
18 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
Atletico Gloriense
13 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
America de Propria
08 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 1
Falcon
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sergipe 9 6 2 1 13:6 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 2 2 12:4 17
3 Lagarto 9 4 4 1 16:8 16
4 Confianca 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 3 3 3 10:10 12
6 America de Propria 9 2 6 1 8:8 12
7 Falcon 9 3 2 4 8:10 11
8 Atletico Gloriense 9 3 1 5 14:13 10
9 Dorense 9 2 1 6 9:23 7
10 Desportiva Aracaju 9 0 2 7 5:17 2
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)