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Guatemala vs Panama

World World

World Championship 2026 Estadio Cementos Progreso
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Guatemala play Panama in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Guatemala averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.72 conceded. Panama averaged 1.47 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. In past meetings, Guatemala won 0, Panama won 3, and they drew 2. Their last match on Nov 14, 2025 ended 2:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Guatemala and 2.13 for Panama. This points to a Panama double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Guatemala
26%
Draws
40%
Panama
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Panama

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Guatemala picked up more points recently compared to Panama.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 2.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
Guatemala Clean Sheet 10%
Panama Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guatemala Panama
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 12
Draws 5 7
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.31 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.72 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 14, 2025 World Championship
Guatemala vs Panama
2:3
Sep 9, 2025 World Championship
Panama vs Guatemala
1:1
Jun 21, 2025 Gold Cup
Guatemala vs Panama
0:1
Oct 18, 2023 CONCACAF Nations League
Panama vs Guatemala
3:0
Sep 11, 2023 CONCACAF Nations League
Guatemala vs Panama
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guatemala Compare

Top Goalscorer Ordonez A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Munoz R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Panama Compare

Top Goalscorer Waterman C.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Fajardo J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guatemala 33 / 100
Panama 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guatemala Panama

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Panama or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Guatemala attacking → ← attacking Panama

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guatemala scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Panama let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Guatemala went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Panama lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 43
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Panama63309:412
2Suriname62319:69
3Guatemala62228:78
4El Salvador61052:113
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Curacao633013:312
2Jamaica632111:311
3Trinidad & Tobago61417:67
4Bermuda60154:231
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Haiti63219:611
2Honduras62315:29
3Costa Rica61418:67
4Nicaragua61144:124