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Guatemala vs Suriname - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League Estadio Manuel Felipe Carrera, Guatemala City
Our Tip

Match Events

34'
Kenneth P.
46'
Sub
Cleonise D. In: Margaret R.
Out: Cleonise D.
60'
Fajardo W.

AI Match Summary

Guatemala in this CONCACAF Nations League matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Guatemala.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Guatemala
20%
Draws
40%
Suriname
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Guatemala lately — more wins on the board than Suriname.
  • Model gives Guatemala a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Guatemala Clean Sheet 13%
Suriname Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guatemala Suriname
Matches Played 35 31
Wins 16 12
Draws 6 9
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.69 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 6, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
Guatemala vs Suriname
1:0
Oct 2, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
Suriname vs Guatemala
0:0
Nov 19, 2025 World Championship
Guatemala vs Suriname
3:1
Oct 10, 2025 World Championship
Suriname vs Guatemala
1:1
Jun 20, 2004 World Championship
Guatemala vs Suriname
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guatemala Compare

Top Goalscorer Evans M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Suriname Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guatemala 66 / 100
Suriname 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guatemala Suriname

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guatemala Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 6:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guatemala's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 35 recent games.

Suriname has conceded goals in 71% of their last 31 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Guatemala went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Guatemala VS Suriname
1 Goals Scored 1.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Guatemala

(Home)
06 Oct
Guatemala
1 : 0
Suriname
02 Oct
Suriname
0 : 0
Guatemala
29 Sept
Guatemala
6 : 0
El Salvador
26 Sept
Jamaica
3 : 2
Guatemala
07 Jun
Ecuador
3 : 0
Guatemala
Page 1 of 7

Suriname

(Away)
06 Oct
Guatemala
1 : 0
Suriname
02 Oct
Suriname
0 : 0
Guatemala
28 Sept
Suriname
2 : 1
Martinique
26 Sept
Honduras
2 : 3
Suriname
26 Mar
Bolivia
2 : 1
Suriname
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Curacao 4 3 1 0 12:5 10
2 Haiti 4 3 0 1 9:5 9
3 Dominican Republic 4 3 0 1 8:8 9
4 Costa Rica 4 2 0 2 8:6 6
5 Trinidad & Tobago 4 0 1 3 4:7 1
6 Nicaragua 4 0 0 4 4:14 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Nations League (League A - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Guatemala 4 2 1 1 9:3 7
2 Jamaica 4 2 1 1 6:4 7
3 Suriname 4 2 1 1 5:4 7
4 Honduras 4 1 1 2 5:6 4
5 Martinique 4 1 1 2 5:7 4
6 El Salvador 4 1 1 2 4:10 4
Promotion - CONCACAF Nations League (League A - Play Offs)