Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Guinea vs Uganda

Africa Africa

African Nations Championship Nelson Mandela National Stadium, Kampala
Guinea Logo

Guinea

0 - 3
FT
Uganda Logo

Uganda

Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Mpande R.
Assist: Sserunjogi J.
49'
Mukundane H.
62' Event
Okello A.
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Uganda in this African Nations Championship matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Uganda.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Guinea
30%
Draws
31%
Uganda
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Guinea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Guinea haven't matched Uganda's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Guinea's way, sitting at 40%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this African Nations Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Guinea Clean Sheet 68%
Uganda Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guinea Uganda
Matches Played 27 26
Wins 10 12
Draws 8 3
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.19 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.04 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2025 African Nations Championship
Guinea vs Uganda
0:3
Mar 25, 2025 World Championship
Uganda vs Guinea
1:0
Nov 17, 2023 World Championship
Guinea vs Uganda
2:1
Nov 19, 2014 Africa Cup of Nations
Guinea vs Uganda
2:0
Sep 10, 2014 Africa Cup of Nations
Uganda vs Guinea
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guinea Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Uganda Compare

Top Goalscorer Mpande R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ahimbisibwe Ivan
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guinea 50 / 100
Uganda 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guinea Uganda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guinea Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Guinea scored in 67% of their last 27 outings.

Uganda's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 26 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Guinea went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Guinea VS Uganda
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Guinea

(Home)
04 Jun
Northern Ireland
1 : 0
Guinea
31 Mar
Guinea
0 : 1
Benin
27 Mar
Guinea
2 : 2
Togo
18 Nov
Guinea
1 : 1
Niger
15 Nov
Guinea
2 : 0
Liberia
Page 1 of 6

Uganda

(Away)
30 Dec
Uganda
1 : 3
Nigeria
27 Dec
Uganda
1 : 1
Tanzania
23 Dec
Tunisia
3 : 1
Uganda
18 Nov
Morocco
4 : 0
Uganda
14 Nov
Uganda
2 : 1
Chad
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kenya 4 3 1 0 4:1 10
2 Morocco 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
3 D.R. Congo 4 2 0 2 5:4 6
4 Angola 4 1 1 2 3:6 4
5 Zambia 4 0 0 4 2:8 0
Promotion - African Nations Championship (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tanzania 4 3 1 0 5:1 10
2 Madagascar 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
3 Mauritania 4 2 1 1 2:1 7
4 Burkina Faso 4 1 0 3 5:7 3
5 Central Africa 4 0 1 3 2:7 1
Promotion - African Nations Championship (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uganda 4 2 1 1 8:6 7
2 Algeria 4 1 3 0 5:2 6
3 South Africa 4 1 3 0 6:5 6
4 Guinea 4 1 1 2 3:6 4
5 Niger 4 0 2 2 0:3 2
Promotion - African Nations Championship (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sudan 3 1 2 0 5:1 5
2 Senegal 3 1 2 0 2:1 5
3 Nigeria 3 1 0 2 2:5 3
4 Congo 3 0 2 1 2:4 2
Promotion - African Nations Championship (Play Offs)