Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Guingamp vs Bastia

France France

Ligue 2 2025/2026 Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp
Our Tip

Match Events

44'
Sub
Nair S. In: Sissoko A.
Out: Nair S.
51' Event
Beliandjou R.
60'
Sub
Sagna A. In: Mbemba F.
Out: Sagna A.

AI Match Summary

Bastia in this Ligue 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bastia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Guingamp
30%
Draws
33%
Bastia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Guingamp

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Bastia lately — more wins on the board than Guingamp.
  • Model gives Guingamp a 37% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Ligue 2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Guingamp Clean Sheet 68%
Bastia Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guingamp Bastia
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 6 10
Draws 8 11
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 1.07 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.36 1.16
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Ligue 2
Guingamp vs Bastia
0:1
Aug 30, 2025 Ligue 2
Bastia vs Guingamp
1:3
May 2, 2025 Ligue 2
Guingamp vs Bastia
2:2
Dec 13, 2024 Ligue 2
Bastia vs Guingamp
3:1
Apr 20, 2024 Ligue 2
Guingamp vs Bastia
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guingamp Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Bastia Compare

Top Goalscorer Beliandjou R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guingamp 50 / 100
Bastia 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guingamp Bastia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guingamp Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Guingamp scored in 64% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Guingamp has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Bastia let in goals in 58% of their last 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

Guingamp VS Bastia
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Guingamp

(Home)
12 Sept
Guingamp
2 : 1
Annecy
05 Sept
Reims
2 : 2
Guingamp
29 Aug
Guingamp
3 : 3
Nantes
21 Aug
Sochaux
1 : 0
Guingamp
14 Aug
Guingamp
1 : 0
Boulogne
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Bastia

(Away)
17 Sept
Bastia
1 : 1
Cannes
12 Sept
Bourg Peronnas
0 : 1
Bastia
05 Sept
Bastia
0 : 3
Amiens SC
27 Aug
Caen
0 : 1
Bastia
20 Aug
Bastia
2 : 3
Versailles
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Troyes 34 20 7 7 60:33 67
2 Le Mans 34 16 14 4 50:31 62
3 St Etienne 34 18 6 10 59:38 60
4 Red Star 34 16 10 8 45:37 58
5 Rodez 34 15 13 6 45:39 58
6 Reims 34 14 14 6 53:35 56
7 Annecy 34 15 7 12 49:39 52
8 Montpellier 34 14 9 11 41:31 51
9 Pau 34 12 9 13 48:62 45
10 Dunkerque 34 11 10 13 53:45 43
11 Guingamp 34 10 10 14 42:49 40
12 Grenoble 34 8 15 11 33:39 39
13 Clermont 34 9 10 15 38:44 37
14 Nancy 34 9 10 15 35:52 37
15 Boulogne 34 9 9 16 34:49 36
16 Laval 34 6 14 14 30:48 32
17 Bastia 34 5 13 16 23:39 28
18 Amiens SC 34 6 6 22 37:65 24
19 AC Ajaccio 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3 (Main)