Sport Picks

France

Ligue 2 2025/2026 Stade de Roudourou

Guingamp

0 - 1

Bastia

Our Tip

Match Events

44'

Sub

Nair S. In: Sissoko A.

Out: Nair S.

51'

Beliandjou R.

60'

Sub

Sagna A. In: Mbemba F.

Out: Sagna A.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Bastia in this Ligue 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bastia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Guingamp

39%

Draws

30%

Bastia

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

Attack-wise there's a gap: Bastia at 1.25 per game, Guingamp at 0.63.
Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
Regular Ligue 2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%

Guingamp Clean Sheet 18%

Bastia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Guingamp	Bastia
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	8	8
Draws	7	9
Losses	13	12
Goals Scored	0.63	1.25
Goals Conceded	1.38	1.25
Expected Goals (xG)	0.63	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Ligue 2

Guingamp vs Bastia

Possession: 54% - 55% Cards: 1 - 4

0:1

Aug 30, 2025 Ligue 2

Bastia vs Guingamp

Possession: 42% - 50% Cards: 1 - 1

1:3

May 2, 2025 Ligue 2

Guingamp vs Bastia

Possession: 45% - 53% Cards: 2 - 3

2:2

Dec 13, 2024 Ligue 2

Bastia vs Guingamp

Possession: 45% - 51% Cards: 3 - 1

3:1

Apr 20, 2024 Ligue 2

Guingamp vs Bastia

Possession: 55% - 55% Cards: 1 - 1

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guingamp Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48

Avg xA / game 0.32

Bastia Compare

Top Goalscorer Beliandjou R.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guingamp 32 / 100

Bastia 41 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Guingamp Bastia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BAS Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Guingamp scored in 64% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Bastia has conceded goals in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Bastia lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Guingamp VS Bastia

0.63 Goals Scored 1.25

1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25

50% Over 1.5 75%

25% Over 2.5 25%

13% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Troyes	34	20	7	7	60:33	67
2	Le Mans	34	16	14	4	50:31	62
3	St Etienne	34	18	6	10	59:38	60
4	Red Star	34	16	10	8	45:37	58
5	Rodez	34	15	13	6	45:39	58
6	Reims	34	14	14	6	53:35	56
7	Annecy	34	15	7	12	49:39	52
8	Montpellier	34	14	9	11	41:31	51
9	Pau	34	12	9	13	48:62	45
10	Dunkerque	34	11	10	13	53:45	43
11	Guingamp	34	10	10	14	42:49	40
12	Grenoble	34	8	15	11	33:39	39
13	Clermont	34	9	10	15	38:44	37
14	Nancy	34	9	10	15	35:52	37
15	Boulogne	34	9	9	16	34:49	36
16	Laval	34	6	14	14	30:48	32
17	Bastia	34	5	13	16	23:39	28
18	Amiens SC	34	6	6	22	37:65	24
19	AC Ajaccio	0	0	0	0	0:0	0