Sport Picks
Match Events
36'
36'
Disasa G.
AI Match Summary
Bahir Dar Kenema in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bahir Dar Kenema.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
50%
28%
22%
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Hadiya Hossana
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
76%
/ High Confidence
- Hadiya Hossana have won more games recently than Bahir Dar Kenema.
- 50% — that's where the model lands on Hadiya Hossana taking it.
- Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Bahir Dar Kenema here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 6%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Hadiya Hossana Clean Sheet 68%
Bahir Dar Kenema Clean Sheet 22%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Hadiya Hossana | Bahir Dar Kenema |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 6 |
| Draws | 11 | 18 |
| Losses | 9 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 21, 2026 Premier League
Hadiya Hossana vs Bahir Dar Kenema
0:1
Oct 20, 2025 Premier League
Bahir Dar Kenema vs Hadiya Hossana
3:1
Mar 10, 2025 Premier League
Hadiya Hossana vs Bahir Dar Kenema
0:1
Oct 1, 2024 Premier League
Bahir Dar Kenema vs Hadiya Hossana
2:0
Apr 18, 2024 Premier League
Bahir Dar Kenema vs Hadiya Hossana
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Hadiya Hossana Compare
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32
Bahir Dar Kenema Compare
Top Goalscorer Disasa G.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Hadiya Hossana 59 / 100
Bahir Dar Kenema 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Hadiya Hossana Bahir Dar Kenema
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick HAD Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Hadiya Hossana scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.
These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.
Solid form: Hadiya Hossana remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Bahir Dar Kenema's defensive record shows goals conceded in 47% of 30 matches.
Scoring Trends
Hadiya Hossana VS Bahir Dar Kenema
0.63 Goals Scored 0.75
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.5
25% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Hadiya Hossana
(Home) 03 Jul
Mechal SC
0 : 0 Hadiya Hossana
27 Jun
Hadiya Hossana
1 : 1 Dire Dawa
22 Jun
Welwalo Adigrat
0 : 1 Hadiya Hossana
15 Jun
Hadiya Hossana
0 : 1 Fasil Kenema
29 May
Shire Endaselassie
1 : 1 Hadiya Hossana
Page 1 of 6
27 Jun
Hadiya Hossana
1 : 1 Dire Dawa
15 Jun
Hadiya Hossana
0 : 1 Fasil Kenema
19 May
Hadiya Hossana
0 : 0 Ethiopia Nigd Bank
09 May
Hadiya Hossana
1 : 0 Hawassa
30 Apr
Hadiya Hossana
1 : 1 Mekelle 70 Enderta FC
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Bahir Dar Kenema
(Away) 03 Jul
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
2 : 2 Bahir Dar Kenema
28 Jun
Bahir Dar Kenema
0 : 1 Sidama Bunna
21 Jun
Hawassa
0 : 0 Bahir Dar Kenema
16 Jun
Bahir Dar Kenema
0 : 2 Welayta Dicha
30 May
Mekelle 70 Enderta FC
0 : 0 Bahir Dar Kenema
Page 1 of 6
03 Jul
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
2 : 2 Bahir Dar Kenema
21 Jun
Hawassa
0 : 0 Bahir Dar Kenema
30 May
Mekelle 70 Enderta FC
0 : 0 Bahir Dar Kenema
15 May
Dire Dawa
0 : 2 Bahir Dar Kenema
06 May
Fasil Kenema
0 : 2 Bahir Dar Kenema
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sidama Bunna | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 43:23 | 68 |
| 2 | Negele Arsi Ketema FC | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 37:30 | 60 |
| 3 | Mechal SC | 38 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 44:31 | 57 |
| 4 | Fasil Kenema | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 28:28 | 55 |
| 5 | Ethio Electric S.C. | 38 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 32:26 | 54 |
| 6 | St. Georges | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 33:31 | 54 |
| 7 | Welayta Dicha | 38 | 11 | 18 | 9 | 37:31 | 51 |
| 8 | Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee) | 38 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 40:39 | 51 |
| 9 | Hawassa | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 37:32 | 50 |
| 10 | Sheger Ketema FC | 38 | 11 | 17 | 10 | 34:31 | 50 |
| 11 | Bahir Dar Kenema | 38 | 9 | 21 | 8 | 28:28 | 48 |
| 12 | Hadiya Hossana | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 31:35 | 48 |
| 13 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 45:45 | 47 |
| 14 | Ethiopian Insurance | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 30:31 | 46 |
| 15 | Adama City | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 35:39 | 46 |
| 16 | Welwalo Adigrat | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 32:36 | 46 |
| 17 | Shire Endaselassie | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 24:32 | 42 |
| 18 | Dire Dawa | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 27:41 | 42 |
| 19 | Mekelle 70 Enderta FC | 38 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 26:38 | 40 |
| 20 | Arba Menche | 38 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 30:46 | 35 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2026/2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2026/2027 (Qualification)