Sport Picks
Hamburger vs RB Leipzig
Germany
Bundesliga 2025/2026 Volksparkstadion, Hamburg 
Match Events
20'
20'
Sub
Capaldo N. In: Omari W.
Out: Capaldo N.
22'
22'
Vieira F.
Assist: Mikelbrencis W.
31'
31'
Orban W.
AI Match Summary
The Bundesliga 2025/2026 game between Hamburger and RB Leipzig finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward RB Leipzig.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
70%
17%
13%
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Hamburger
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
88%
/ Very High Confidence
- RB Leipzig carry the better recent record into this one.
- 70% — that's where the model lands on Hamburger taking it.
- Regular Bundesliga 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 82%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and RB Leipzig have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 82%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Hamburger Clean Sheet 10%
RB Leipzig Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Hamburger | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 8 | 17 |
| Draws | 9 | 4 |
| Losses | 12 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.63 | 1.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.13 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 2.13 | 1.88 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 1, 2026 Bundesliga
Hamburger vs RB Leipzig
1:2
Oct 18, 2025 Bundesliga
RB Leipzig vs Hamburger
2:1
Oct 18, 2022 DFB Pokal
RB Leipzig vs Hamburger
4:0
Apr 23, 2019 DFB Pokal
Hamburger vs RB Leipzig
1:3
Jan 27, 2018 Bundesliga
RB Leipzig vs Hamburger
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Hamburger Compare
Top Goalscorer Vieira F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
RB Leipzig Compare
Top Goalscorer Romulo Cardoso
1 Goals Assists Leader Diomande Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Hamburger 65 / 100
RB Leipzig 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Hamburger RB Leipzig
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick HAM Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Hamburger's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
Defensive concern: RB Leipzig conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.
Hamburger has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Hamburger VS RB Leipzig
1.63 Goals Scored 1.75
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Hamburger
(Home) 25 Jul
Heidenheim
1 : 3 Hamburger
18 Jul
Rapid Vienna
3 : 2 Hamburger
16 May
Bayer Leverkusen
1 : 1 Hamburger
10 May
Hamburger
3 : 2 Freiburg
02 May
Eintracht Frankfurt
1 : 2 Hamburger
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10 May
Hamburger
3 : 2 Freiburg
25 Apr
Hamburger
1 : 2 Hoffenheim
04 Apr
Hamburger
1 : 1 Augsburg
14 Mar
Hamburger
1 : 1 1. FC Koln
04 Mar
Hamburger
0 : 1 Bayer Leverkusen
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RB Leipzig
(Away) 25 Jul
RB Leipzig
1 : 0 Ingolstadt
18 Jul
Altglienicke
1 : 2 RB Leipzig
29 May
Mamelodi Sundowns
3 : 1 RB Leipzig
16 May
Freiburg
4 : 1 RB Leipzig
09 May
RB Leipzig
2 : 1 St. Pauli
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18 Jul
Altglienicke
1 : 2 RB Leipzig
29 May
Mamelodi Sundowns
3 : 1 RB Leipzig
16 May
Freiburg
4 : 1 RB Leipzig
02 May
Bayer Leverkusen
4 : 1 RB Leipzig
18 Apr
Eintracht Frankfurt
1 : 3 RB Leipzig
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 34 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 122:36 | 89 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 70:34 | 73 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 66:47 | 65 |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 71:49 | 62 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 65:52 | 61 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 68:47 | 59 |
| 7 | Freiburg | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 51:57 | 47 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 61:65 | 44 |
| 9 | Augsburg | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 45:61 | 43 |
| 10 | Mainz | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 44:53 | 40 |
| 11 | Union Berlin | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 44:58 | 39 |
| 12 | B. Monchengladbach | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 42:53 | 38 |
| 13 | Hamburger | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40:54 | 38 |
| 14 | 1. FC Koln | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 49:63 | 32 |
| 15 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 37:60 | 32 |
| 16 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 45:69 | 29 |
| 17 | Heidenheim | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 41:72 | 26 |
| 18 | St. Pauli | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 29:60 | 26 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga (Main)
