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Hamilton vs Waitakere United Prediction & H2H Stats

New Zealand New Zealand

Football Championship
Our Tip

Match Events

55' Event
Tieku D.
58' Event
Schnell D.
61' Event
Cromb A.

AI Match Summary

Hamilton in this Football Championship matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Hamilton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Hamilton
15%
Draws
45%
Waitakere United
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Waitakere United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Waitakere United average 2.07 goals a game right now, well clear of Hamilton's 1.64.
  • 45% — that's where the model lands on Waitakere United taking it.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Football Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 67%
Over 4.5 Goals 30%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81%
Hamilton Clean Sheet 10%
Waitakere United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hamilton Waitakere United
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 10 10
Draws 7 9
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.64 2.07
Goals Conceded 1.89 2.04
Expected Goals (xG) 1.85 2.35
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 14, 2021 Football Championship
Hamilton vs Waitakere United
3:2
Dec 12, 2020 Football Championship
Waitakere United vs Hamilton
1:1
Feb 29, 2020 Football Championship
Waitakere United vs Hamilton
3:0
Feb 22, 2020 Football Championship
Hamilton vs Waitakere United
3:2
Dec 16, 2018 Football Championship
Waitakere United vs Hamilton
3:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hamilton Compare

Top Goalscorer Tieku D.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.93

Waitakere United Compare

Top Goalscorer Schnell D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cromb A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.14
Avg xA / game 1.31

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hamilton 10 / 100
Waitakere United 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hamilton Waitakere United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Waitakere United Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hamilton's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: Waitakere United conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 4.40 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Hamilton stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Hamilton VS Waitakere United
2 Goals Scored 2.57
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.71
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 71%
63% Over 3.5 71%

Recent Form & Match History

Hamilton

(Home)
29 Jul
Hamilton
0 : 3
Christchurch
09 Jul
Hamilton
3 : 2
Ngaruawahia AFC
20 Aug
Eastern Suburbs
1 : 0
Hamilton
30 Jul
Miramar
3 : 4
Hamilton
09 Jul
Auckland United
0 : 1
Hamilton
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Waitakere United

(Away)
27 Feb
Auckland City
2 : 2
Waitakere United
21 Feb
Waitakere United
2 : 0
Hawke s Bay
14 Feb
Hamilton
3 : 2
Waitakere United
06 Feb
Waitakere United
4 : 0
Eastern Suburbs
30 Jan
Team Wellington
3 : 4
Waitakere United
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Auckland City 14 8 4 2 27:13 28
2 Team Wellington 14 7 5 2 35:21 26
3 Hamilton 14 5 5 4 23:21 20
4 Eastern Suburbs 14 5 4 5 25:23 19
5 Waitakere United 14 4 6 4 28:26 18
6 Canterbury 14 5 3 6 21:24 18
7 Hawke s Bay 14 4 1 9 17:29 13
8 Wellington Phoenix 2 14 2 4 8 18:37 10
Promotion - Football Championship (Play Offs)