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Hamrun vs Floriana - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Malta Malta

Premier League Tony Bezzina Stadium, Paola
Hamrun Logo

Hamrun

1 - 1
FT
Floriana Logo

Floriana

Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Sub
Thioune S. In: Virano G.
Out: Thioune S.
17' Event
Caua de Aguiar Alves M.
23'
Sub
Jbira Y. In: Gudelj T.
Out: Jbira Y.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Hamrun and Floriana finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Hamrun
35%
Draws
26%
Floriana
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Hamrun

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Floriana carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Hamrun's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Hamrun Clean Sheet 68%
Floriana Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hamrun Floriana
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 15
Draws 8 9
Losses 10 5
Goals Scored 1.55 1.69
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Premier League
Hamrun vs Floriana
1:1
Apr 25, 2026 Premier League
Floriana vs Hamrun
1:4
Mar 1, 2026 Premier League
Hamrun vs Floriana
1:1
Jan 7, 2026 Premier League
Floriana vs Hamrun
0:2
Oct 29, 2025 Premier League
Floriana vs Hamrun
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hamrun Compare

Top Goalscorer Caua de Aguiar Alves M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Floriana Compare

Top Goalscorer Muric R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hamrun 68 / 100
Floriana 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hamrun Floriana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hamrun Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hamrun scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Hamrun went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Floriana's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Hamrun VS Floriana
1.63 Goals Scored 2.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Hamrun

(Home)
21 Oct
Hamrun
1 : 1
Balzan FC
18 Oct
Gzira
2 : 2
Hamrun
11 Oct
Hamrun
2 : 2
Hibernians
18 Sept
Hamrun
4 : 1
Marsaxlokk
11 Sept
Birzebbuga
0 : 2
Hamrun
Page 1 of 6

Floriana

(Away)
22 Oct
Birkirkara
1 : 1
Floriana
18 Oct
Floriana
3 : 3
Mosta FC
11 Oct
Floriana
1 : 1
Balzan FC
20 Sept
Hibernians
0 : 4
Floriana
12 Sept
Floriana
2 : 5
Marsaxlokk
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Valletta 9 7 1 1 21:7 22
2 Marsaxlokk 9 5 2 2 15:12 17
3 Floriana 9 4 4 1 21:12 16
4 Sliema 9 4 2 3 12:12 14
5 Hamrun 9 3 4 2 14:11 13
6 Mosta FC 9 3 4 2 13:13 13
7 Hibernians 9 3 3 3 9:12 12
8 Balzan FC 9 2 5 2 12:10 11
9 Birkirkara 9 3 2 4 10:9 11
10 Zabbar 9 2 2 5 10:15 8
11 Gzira 9 0 4 5 7:19 4
12 Birzebbuga 9 1 1 7 5:17 4
Promotion - Premier League (First stage - Top 6)
Relegation - Premier League (First stage - Play Out)