Sport Picks

Stadium Background

HAPK vs Lahden Reipas

Finland Finland

Kakkonen Group A 2025 Haminan urheilukentta, Hamina
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Pietilainen N.
29'
Sub
Pietilainen N. In: Paivahonka R.
Out: Pietilainen N.
30' Event
Traore B.

AI Match Summary

Lahden Reipas in this Kakkonen Group A 2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lahden Reipas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
HAPK
15%
Draws
57%
Lahden Reipas
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lahden Reipas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Lahden Reipas have won more games recently than HAPK.
  • Win probability leans Lahden Reipas's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 91%).
  • Lahden Reipas have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 91%
Over 3.5 Goals 75%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
HAPK Clean Sheet 10%
Lahden Reipas Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric HAPK Lahden Reipas
Matches Played 30 37
Wins 5 19
Draws 3 3
Losses 22 15
Goals Scored 0.97 2.84
Goals Conceded 3.67 1.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 4.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 21, 2025 Kakkonen Group A
Lahden Reipas vs HAPK
6:0
Aug 30, 2025 Kakkonen Group A
HAPK vs Lahden Reipas
0:7
Jul 8, 2025 Kakkonen Group A
HAPK vs Lahden Reipas
2:3
May 2, 2025 Kakkonen Group A
Lahden Reipas vs HAPK
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

HAPK Compare

Top Goalscorer Pietilainen N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Saarelainen A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Lahden Reipas Compare

Top Goalscorer Traore B.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Helttunen O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 3.64
Avg xA / game 2.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

HAPK 10 / 100
Lahden Reipas 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
HAPK Lahden Reipas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lahden Reipas Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lahden Reipas has conceded goals in 84% of their last 37 outings.

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

HAPK's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Difficult form: Lahden Reipas registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

HAPK VS Lahden Reipas
1 Goals Scored 2
6 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 88%
100% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

HAPK

(Home)
14 Apr
HAPK
1 : 6
SJK
04 Oct
HAPK
3 : 2
JPS Jyvaskyla
27 Sept
Vaajakoski
4 : 2
HAPK
21 Sept
Lahden Reipas
6 : 0
HAPK
13 Sept
HAPK
0 : 3
Vaajakoski
Page 1 of 6

Lahden Reipas

(Away)
22 Aug
Union Plaani
1 : 0
Lahden Reipas
16 Aug
Lahden Reipas
1 : 2
PEPO
07 Aug
Atlantis
4 : 2
Lahden Reipas
02 Aug
Lahden Reipas
2 : 1
Pallo-Pojat Juniorit (PPJ)
25 Jul
Lahden Reipas
4 : 2
MyPa
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Honka 18 16 1 1 79:13 49
2 VJS 18 13 3 2 54:18 42
3 PuiU Helsinki 18 10 1 7 32:26 31
4 PEPO 18 9 2 7 31:29 29
5 MyPa 18 8 3 7 47:39 27
6 GrIFK 18 7 4 7 37:36 25
7 Lahden Reipas 18 7 2 9 41:43 23
8 Vaajakoski 18 7 1 10 37:41 22
9 HAPK 18 1 3 14 13:67 6
10 JPS Jyvaskyla 18 1 2 15 18:77 5
Promotion - Kakkonen Group A 2025 (Winners stage)
Relegation - Kakkonen Group A 2025 (Losers stage)