Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Karmiel

Israel Israel

Liga Alef North
Our Tip

Match Events

24'
Badir M.
77' Event
Khoury M.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Alef North game between Hapoel Umm al-Fahm and Hapoel Karmiel finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Hapoel Umm al-Fahm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
20%
Draws
38%
Hapoel Karmiel
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Hapoel Karmiel carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Hapoel Umm al-Fahm a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga Alef North form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 19%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Clean Sheet 20%
Hapoel Karmiel Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Hapoel Karmiel
Matches Played 20 21
Wins 7 9
Draws 5 4
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 0 0.13
Goals Conceded 0.25 0.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.25 0.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 5, 2026 Liga Alef North
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Karmiel
1:0
Sep 26, 2025 Liga Alef North
Hapoel Karmiel vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Compare

Top Goalscorer Khoury M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Hapoel Karmiel Compare

Avg xG / game 0.12
Avg xA / game 0.07

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 42 / 100
Hapoel Karmiel 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Hapoel Karmiel

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (20 games).

Solid form: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Hapoel Karmiel's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Hapoel Karmiel's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 21 matches.

Scoring Trends

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm VS Hapoel Karmiel
0 Goals Scored 0.13
0.25 Goals Conceded 0.25
13% Over 1.5 13%
0% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

(Home)
26 Feb
Maccabi Kiryat Ata-Bialik
0 : 0
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
21 Feb
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
0 : 2
Hapoel Bnei Musmus
12 Feb
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
2 : 3
Beit Shean
05 Feb
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1 : 0
Hapoel Karmiel
30 Jan
FC Tzeirey Tamra
2 : 4
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Page 1 of 4

Hapoel Karmiel

(Away)
27 Feb
Hapoel Karmiel
1 : 2
Hapoel Ironi Arraba
19 Feb
MS Tira
0 : 0
Hapoel Karmiel
13 Feb
Hapoel Karmiel
1 : 1
Hapoel Tirat Karmel
05 Feb
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1 : 0
Hapoel Karmiel
30 Jan
Hapoel Karmiel
2 : 3
Hapoel Bnei Musmus
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1M. Nazareth21153344:1748
2MS Tira22133642:2342
3Maccabi Kiryat Ata-Bialik22108435:2138
4Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad22106634:2936
5Hapoel Karmiel2296730:2333
6Hapoel Bnei Musmus2196628:2833
7Beit Shean2288628:2732
8Ironi Baka2294933:3031
9Tzeirey Um El Fahem2286829:2530
10Ironi Nesher2285928:3729
11FC Tzeirey Tamra22731232:4724
12Hapoel Ironi Arraba22561130:3921
13Hapoel Migdal HaEmek2287729:2317
14Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmad21451216:3617
15Hapoel Tirat Karmel21331516:4212
16Hapoel Umm al-Fahm22651130:3711
17Tzeirei Kafr Kanna00000:00
Promotion - Leumit League (Main)
Promotion - Liga Alef North (Promotion - Play Offs)