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Harju JK Laagri vs Kalju

Estonia Estonia

Meistriliiga Laagri kunstmurustaadion
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Harju JK Laagri play Kalju in the Meistriliiga. It looks like a close match. Recently, Harju JK Laagri averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.55 conceded. Kalju averaged 1.96 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, Harju JK Laagri won 0, Kalju won 5, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 20, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Harju JK Laagri and 1.75 for Kalju. This points to a Kalju double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Harju JK Laagri
15%
Draws
51%
Kalju
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kalju

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Harju JK Laagri picked up more points recently compared to Kalju.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 1.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 57%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 57%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%
Harju JK Laagri Clean Sheet 12%
Kalju Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Harju JK Laagri Kalju
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 12 14
Draws 4 6
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 1.55 1.96
Goals Conceded 1.55 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 20, 2026 Meistriliiga
Kalju vs Harju JK Laagri
1:0
Apr 8, 2026 Meistriliiga
Harju JK Laagri vs Kalju
0:2
Oct 19, 2025 Meistriliiga
Harju JK Laagri vs Kalju
1:3
Sep 24, 2025 Meistriliiga
Harju JK Laagri vs Kalju
2:3
Jun 18, 2025 Meistriliiga
Kalju vs Harju JK Laagri
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Harju JK Laagri Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Kalju Compare

Top Goalscorer Kask K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mannilaan M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Harju JK Laagri 33 / 100
Kalju 49 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Harju JK Laagri Kalju

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Kalju or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.7%
1.96
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Harju JK Laagri attacking → ← attacking Kalju

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Harju JK Laagri scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Kalju let in goals in 67% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Harju JK Laagri went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Kalju lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

40 Points in last 5 48
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Levadia19144149:1646
2Flora18120638:1936
3Kalju19104533:1634
4Paide Linnameeskond1995530:2332
5Tammeka Tartu1782720:2126
6Parnu JK Vaprus1872922:3423
7Nomme Utd18611134:4319
8Harju JK Laagri18611122:3219
9Kuressaare18521117:3017
10Narva18311412:4310