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Stadium Background

Harju JK Laagri vs Kuressaare

Estonia Estonia

Meistriliiga Laagri kunstmurustaadion, Laagri
Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Kaevats A.
12'
Laur K.
46'
Sub
Kaevats A. In: Palutaja H.
Out: Kaevats A.

AI Match Summary

The Meistriliiga game between Harju JK Laagri and Kuressaare finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kuressaare.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Harju JK Laagri
30%
Draws
29%
Kuressaare
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Harju JK Laagri

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Harju JK Laagri carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Harju JK Laagri are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Harju JK Laagri Clean Sheet 10%
Kuressaare Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Harju JK Laagri Kuressaare
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 10
Draws 2 5
Losses 16 15
Goals Scored 1.63 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 18, 2026 Meistriliiga
Harju JK Laagri vs Kuressaare
0:0
Aug 7, 2026 Meistriliiga
Kuressaare vs Harju JK Laagri
3:2
Jun 13, 2026 Meistriliiga
Harju JK Laagri vs Kuressaare
2:3
Apr 11, 2026 Meistriliiga
Kuressaare vs Harju JK Laagri
3:2
Sep 17, 2025 Meistriliiga
Harju JK Laagri vs Kuressaare
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Harju JK Laagri Compare

Top Goalscorer Kelement M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Liit S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Kuressaare Compare

Top Goalscorer Kivi A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Prunn S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Harju JK Laagri 56 / 100
Kuressaare 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Harju JK Laagri Kuressaare

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Harju JK Laagri Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kuressaare has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Attacking prowess: Harju JK Laagri scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Harju JK Laagri stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Harju JK Laagri VS Kuressaare
2.13 Goals Scored 3
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Harju JK Laagri

(Home)
18 Sept
Harju JK Laagri
0 : 0
Kuressaare
13 Sept
Paide Linnameeskond
1 : 2
Harju JK Laagri
09 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus
3 : 2
Harju JK Laagri
06 Sept
Harju JK Laagri
0 : 2
Tammeka Tartu
29 Aug
Nomme Utd
1 : 2
Harju JK Laagri
Page 1 of 6

Kuressaare

(Away)
18 Sept
Harju JK Laagri
0 : 0
Kuressaare
13 Sept
Kuressaare
1 : 3
Tammeka Tartu
09 Sept
Levadia
4 : 0
Kuressaare
05 Sept
Kuressaare
3 : 1
Narva
29 Aug
Kuressaare
2 : 2
Parnu JK Vaprus
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levadia 29 22 6 1 81:21 72
2 Flora 29 18 1 10 59:39 55
3 Paide Linnameeskond 29 15 6 8 48:36 51
4 Kalju 29 15 5 9 52:27 50
5 Tammeka Tartu 29 14 2 13 37:47 44
6 Harju JK Laagri 29 11 2 16 40:47 35
7 Parnu JK Vaprus 29 10 4 15 39:57 34
8 Kuressaare 29 8 5 16 31:49 29
9 Nomme Utd 29 9 1 19 47:68 28
10 Narva 29 5 4 20 22:65 19
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)