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Harju JK Laagri vs Parnu JK Vaprus - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Estonia Estonia

Meistriliiga Laagri kunstmurustaadion, Laagri
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
11:30 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Harju JK Laagri host Parnu JK Vaprus in the Meistriliiga. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Harju JK Laagri have averaged 1.93 scored and 1.57 conceded recently, against Parnu JK Vaprus's 1.57 scored and 1.71 conceded. Head-to-head, Harju JK Laagri have won 1 to Parnu JK Vaprus's 3, with 1 draws. They last met on Sep 9, 2026, ending 3:2. The numbers (2.25 xG vs 1.19) point toward Parnu JK Vaprus. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Harju JK Laagri
15%
Draws
39%
Parnu JK Vaprus
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Harju JK Laagri

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Harju JK Laagri at 1.93 per game, Parnu JK Vaprus at 1.57.
  • Model gives Harju JK Laagri a 46% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Meistriliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Harju JK Laagri Clean Sheet 20%
Parnu JK Vaprus Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Harju JK Laagri Parnu JK Vaprus
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 11
Draws 2 4
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 1.93 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.71
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2026 Meistriliiga
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Harju JK Laagri
3:2
May 16, 2026 Meistriliiga
Harju JK Laagri vs Parnu JK Vaprus
1:2
Apr 4, 2026 Meistriliiga
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Harju JK Laagri
0:2
Sep 27, 2025 Meistriliiga
Harju JK Laagri vs Parnu JK Vaprus
1:2
Jul 25, 2025 Meistriliiga
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Harju JK Laagri
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Harju JK Laagri 85 / 100
Parnu JK Vaprus 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Harju JK Laagri Parnu JK Vaprus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Harju JK Laagri Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Harju JK Laagri scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Parnu JK Vaprus conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

Harju JK Laagri has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Harju JK Laagri VS Parnu JK Vaprus
2.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Harju JK Laagri

(Home)
03 Oct
FC Tallinn
0 : 10
Harju JK Laagri
18 Sept
Harju JK Laagri
0 : 0
Kuressaare
13 Sept
Paide Linnameeskond
1 : 2
Harju JK Laagri
09 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus
3 : 2
Harju JK Laagri
06 Sept
Harju JK Laagri
0 : 2
Tammeka Tartu
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Parnu JK Vaprus

(Away)
20 Sept
Flora
3 : 2
Parnu JK Vaprus
16 Sept
Paide Linnameeskond
2 : 0
Parnu JK Vaprus
12 Sept
Levadia
4 : 0
Parnu JK Vaprus
09 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus
3 : 2
Harju JK Laagri
05 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus
1 : 0
Nomme Utd
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levadia 29 22 6 1 81:21 72
2 Flora 29 18 1 10 59:39 55
3 Paide Linnameeskond 29 15 6 8 48:36 51
4 Kalju 29 15 5 9 52:27 50
5 Tammeka Tartu 29 14 2 13 37:47 44
6 Harju JK Laagri 29 11 2 16 40:47 35
7 Parnu JK Vaprus 29 10 4 15 39:57 34
8 Kuressaare 29 8 5 16 31:49 29
9 Nomme Utd 29 9 1 19 47:68 28
10 Narva 29 5 4 20 22:65 19
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)