Sport Picks

Turkey

1. Lig 2025/2026 Mersin Stadyumu

Vanspor FK

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Hatayspor play Vanspor FK in the 1. Lig 2025/2026. Vanspor FK are favorites here. Recently, Hatayspor averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2.73 conceded. Vanspor FK averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.47 conceded. In past meetings, Hatayspor won 1, Vanspor FK won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 1, 2026 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Hatayspor and 1.81 for Vanspor FK. This points to a Vanspor FK double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%

Hatayspor

17%

Draws

64%

Vanspor FK

Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Vanspor FK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence

Hatayspor picked up more points recently compared to Vanspor FK.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.81 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 69%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 84%

Over 2.5 Goals 69%

Over 3.5 Goals 41%

Over 4.5 Goals 21%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 50%

Hatayspor Clean Sheet 11%

Vanspor FK Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 76%

Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Hatayspor	Vanspor FK
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	2	11
Draws	5	5
Losses	23	14
Goals Scored	0.8	1.53
Goals Conceded	2.73	1.47
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.50	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2026 1. Lig

Hatayspor vs Vanspor FK

Possession: 56% - 59% Cards: 3 - 2

3:1

Dec 27, 2025 1. Lig

Vanspor FK vs Hatayspor

Possession: 51% - 42% Cards: 0 - 3

4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hatayspor Compare

Top Goalscorer Durmushan U.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Azrak Y.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Vanspor FK Compare

Top Goalscorer Hostikka S.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hatayspor 19 / 100

Vanspor FK 60 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Hatayspor Vanspor FK

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vanspor FK Win (2)

Secondary Pick Vanspor FK & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +72.7%

9.09

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +9.7%

1.59

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Hatayspor attacking → ← attacking Vanspor FK

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hatayspor scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Vanspor FK let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Hatayspor went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Vanspor FK lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

11 Points in last 5 38

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

2.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Erzurumspor FK	38	23	12	3	82:27	81
2	Amedspor	38	21	11	6	81:42	74
3	Erokspor	38	21	11	6	81:35	74
4	Corum FK	38	21	8	9	63:39	71
5	Bodrumspor	38	18	10	10	71:39	64
6	Pendikspor	38	16	15	7	58:33	63
7	Keciorengucu	38	16	12	10	73:43	60
8	Bandirmaspor	38	16	12	10	47:34	60
9	Manisa FK	38	16	7	15	57:56	55
10	Sivasspor	38	14	11	13	47:43	53
11	Istanbulspor AS	38	13	13	12	57:55	52
12	Sariyer	38	15	7	16	44:44	52
13	Igdir FK	38	13	11	14	52:54	50
14	Vanspor FK	38	13	10	15	52:47	49
15	Boluspor	38	14	6	18	61:57	48
16	Umraniyespor	38	13	7	18	47:51	46
17	Serik Spor	38	11	6	21	44:75	39
18	Sakaryaspor	38	8	10	20	45:72	34
19	Hatayspor	38	2	8	28	33:102	14
20	Adanademirspor	38	1	3	34	22:169	-54