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Hawke s Bay vs Auckland City

New Zealand New Zealand

Football Championship
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Vollenhoven D.
61' Event
Kaltack B.
77' Event
Awad M.

AI Match Summary

The Football Championship game between Hawke s Bay and Auckland City finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Auckland City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Hawke s Bay
6%
Draws
90%
Auckland City
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Auckland City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Auckland City carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Auckland City taking it.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Football Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Auckland City have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Hawke s Bay Clean Sheet 20%
Auckland City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hawke s Bay Auckland City
Matches Played 28 32
Wins 7 20
Draws 4 5
Losses 17 7
Goals Scored 0 0.75
Goals Conceded 0 3

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2021 Football Championship
Hawke s Bay vs Auckland City
0:4
Nov 29, 2020 Football Championship
Auckland City vs Hawke s Bay
2:1
Jan 19, 2020 Football Championship
Auckland City vs Hawke s Bay
4:2
Nov 2, 2019 Football Championship
Hawke s Bay vs Auckland City
2:3
Jan 20, 2019 Football Championship
Hawke s Bay vs Auckland City
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hawke s Bay Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Auckland City Compare

Top Goalscorer Vollenhoven D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kaltack B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hawke s Bay 10 / 100
Auckland City 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hawke s Bay Auckland City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AKL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.60 goals per match.

Hawke s Bay found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: Auckland City conceded in 66% of 32 recent games.

Hawke s Bay went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Auckland City
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0 Goals Conceded 3
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Hawke s Bay

(Home)
10 Mar
Hawke s Bay
1 : 2
Eastern Suburbs
21 Feb
Waitakere United
2 : 0
Hawke s Bay
14 Feb
Hawke s Bay
3 : 2
Wellington Phoenix 2
06 Feb
Canterbury
2 : 1
Hawke s Bay
31 Jan
Hawke s Bay
0 : 4
Auckland City
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Auckland City

(Away)
04 Jul
Auckland City
3 : 0
Takapuna Afc
13 Dec
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3
Auckland City
06 Dec
Auckland City
3 : 0
Coastal Spirit
30 Nov
Western Springs
1 : 3
Auckland City
22 Nov
Auckland City
2 : 0
Wellington Phoenix 2
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Auckland City1484227:1328
2Team Wellington1475235:2126
3Hamilton1455423:2120
4Eastern Suburbs1454525:2319
5Waitakere United1446428:2618
6Canterbury1453621:2418
7Hawke s Bay1441917:2913
8Wellington Phoenix 21424818:3710
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