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Hay Al Wadi vs El-Ahli Atbara

Sudan Sudan

Premier League 2019/2020
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Hay Al Wadi enters this Premier League 2019/2020 fixture as the clear favorite, carrying a strong win probability of 60%. Hay Al Wadi averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in recent matches. El-Ahli Atbara shows a form average of 0.9 goals scored and 2.3 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 0 wins for Hay Al Wadi, 0 wins for El-Ahli Atbara, and 5 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 04.02.20 ended in a 0:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.20 for Hay Al Wadi and 1.00 for El-Ahli Atbara, suggesting the primary value lies in the Hay Al Wadi double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Hay Al Wadi
25%
Draws
15%
El-Ahli Atbara
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Hay Al Wadi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Hay Al Wadi picked up more points recently compared to El-Ahli Atbara.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Hay Al Wadi Clean Sheet 23%
El-Ahli Atbara Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hay Al Wadi El-Ahli Atbara
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 9 4
Draws 13 5
Losses 9 20
Goals Scored 1 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.23 2.34

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

04.02.20 Premier League
El-Ahli Atbara vs Hay Al Wadi
0:0
25.12.19 Premier League
Hay Al Wadi vs El-Ahli Atbara
0:0
10.09.18 Premier League
Hay Al Wadi vs El-Ahli Atbara
1:1
22.07.18 Premier League
El-Ahli Atbara vs Hay Al Wadi
1:1
03.10.17 Premier League
Hay Al Wadi vs El-Ahli Atbara
1:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Hay Al Wadi

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

El-Ahli Atbara

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hay Al Wadi 59 / 100
El-Ahli Atbara 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hay Al Wadi El-Ahli Atbara

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hay Al Wadi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Hay Al Wadi & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.2%
1.92
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.2%
2.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Hay Al Wadi is expected to start with high intensity, putting pressure on the visitors early.

Hay Al Wadi 66%
El-Ahli Atbara 12%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

El-Ahli Atbara will try to absorb the pressure and slow down the tempo of Hay Al Wadi's attacks.

Hay Al Wadi 57%
El-Ahli Atbara 16%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Expect Hay Al Wadi to create chances through sustained possession before the break.

Hay Al Wadi 60%
El-Ahli Atbara 15%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments at half-time will see Hay Al Wadi vary their attacking width.

Hay Al Wadi 63%
El-Ahli Atbara 14%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Fatigue may set in for El-Ahli Atbara, allowing Hay Al Wadi's midfield to exploit vertical gaps.

Hay Al Wadi 54%
El-Ahli Atbara 17%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Expect a final offensive push from Hay Al Wadi, while El-Ahli Atbara takes risks to salvage a result.

Hay Al Wadi 69%
El-Ahli Atbara 17%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Hay Al Wadi attacking → ← attacking El-Ahli Atbara

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hay Al Wadi have found the net in 58% of their last 31 matches.

El-Ahli Atbara have conceded at least one goal in 79% of their last 29 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 1.20 goals per match.

Hay Al Wadi remained undefeated in 3 of their last 5 overall matchups.

El-Ahli Atbara suffered defeat in 5 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

40 Points in last 5 17
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Al-Merreikh32235460:1774
2Al-Hilal Omdurman32216562:1969
3Hilal El Obied321610649:2458
4Alamal SC Atbara321411743:2953
5Hay Al Wadi321213729:2249
6Hay al-Arab321471138:4249
7Merreikh El-Fasher321391038:3048
8Al-Khartoum321113830:1846
9Ahli Shendi321351442:3544
10Al-Ahly Merowe321181328:3541
11Ahli Khartoum321091337:4139
12Hilal El-Fasher329101328:3937
13Al Hilal Kadougli327111429:4632
14Al Shorta32881633:5232
15Alfalah Atbra32791629:4830
16Rabita Kosti32752027:5826
17El-Ahli Atbara32452326:7317