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Hearts vs St Johnstone - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

Premiership Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Wilson J.
Assist: McPake J.
39' Event
Alic E.
Own Goal
48' Event
Paton R.
Assist: Stanton S.

AI Match Summary

The Premiership game between Hearts and St Johnstone finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Hearts.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Hearts
35%
Draws
40%
St Johnstone
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: St Johnstone

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • St Johnstone carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Hearts taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Hearts have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Hearts Clean Sheet 20%
St Johnstone Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hearts St Johnstone
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 14 16
Draws 5 7
Losses 8 5
Goals Scored 1.93 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.67 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Premiership
Hearts vs St Johnstone
2:1
May 14, 2025 Premiership
Hearts vs St Johnstone
2:1
Feb 23, 2025 Premiership
St Johnstone vs Hearts
1:2
Dec 22, 2024 Premiership
Hearts vs St Johnstone
2:1
Nov 2, 2024 Premiership
St Johnstone vs Hearts
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hearts Compare

Top Goalscorer Wilson J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

St Johnstone Compare

Top Goalscorer Paton R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hearts 36 / 100
St Johnstone 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hearts St Johnstone

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hearts found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (27 games).

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Hearts went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

St Johnstone's defensive record shows goals conceded in 54% of 28 matches.

Scoring Trends

Hearts VS St Johnstone
2.25 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Hearts

(Home)
18 Oct
Celtic
7 : 1
Hearts
15 Oct
Hearts
1 : 1
Nordsjaelland
10 Oct
Hearts
5 : 0
St. Mirren
19 Sept
Kilmarnock
1 : 1
Hearts
15 Sept
Falkirk
2 : 1
Hearts
Page 1 of 6

St Johnstone

(Away)
17 Oct
St Johnstone
1 : 1
Dundee Utd
11 Oct
Aberdeen
0 : 1
St Johnstone
19 Sept
St Johnstone
1 : 1
Falkirk
09 Sept
St Johnstone
0 : 1
Celtic
06 Sept
St Johnstone
2 : 1
Hibernian
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Celtic 9 8 0 1 23:5 24
2 Rangers 9 6 2 1 13:7 20
3 Hearts 9 5 1 3 20:15 16
4 Dundee FC 9 4 2 3 13:10 14
5 St Johnstone 9 3 3 3 11:11 12
6 Dundee Utd 9 3 3 3 11:12 12
7 Aberdeen 9 3 2 4 10:10 11
8 St. Mirren 9 3 1 5 9:17 10
9 Falkirk 9 2 3 4 9:12 9
10 Motherwell 9 2 2 5 11:16 8
11 Kilmarnock 9 2 2 5 10:20 8
12 Hibernian 9 2 1 6 9:14 7
Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)
Relegation - Premiership (Relegation Group)