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Hebar vs Nesebar Prediction & H2H Stats

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Vtora liga Stadion Georgi Benkovski, Pazardzhik
Fri, Oct 23, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Hebar host Nesebar in the Vtora liga. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Nesebar have shipped 1.03 goals a game lately, while Hebar have conceded 1.54 and scored 1.54. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 1.81 vs 1.75, favoring Nesebar. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Hebar
20%
Draws
40%
Nesebar
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Nesebar lately — more wins on the board than Hebar.
  • Win probability leans Hebar's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Vtora liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Hebar Clean Sheet 12%
Nesebar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hebar Nesebar
Matches Played 26 29
Wins 9 18
Draws 5 6
Losses 12 5
Goals Scored 1.54 2.79
Goals Conceded 1.54 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hebar 83 / 100
Nesebar 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hebar Nesebar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hebar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hebar scored in 81% of their last 26 games.

Defensive concern: Nesebar conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: Hebar remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Nesebar's recent record shows 2 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Hebar VS Nesebar
2.5 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Hebar

(Home)
27 Sept
Hebar
1 : 2
Dobrudzha
21 Sept
Montana
0 : 5
Hebar
14 Sept
Hebar
4 : 1
Etar
07 Sept
Spartak Pleven
3 : 2
Hebar
01 Sept
Hebar
1 : 1
Fratria
Page 1 of 6

Nesebar

(Away)
27 Sept
Vihren
2 : 0
Nesebar
20 Sept
Nesebar
4 : 3
Beroe
15 Sept
Gorna
1 : 1
Nesebar
06 Sept
Nesebar
2 : 1
Rilski Sportist
02 Sept
Marek
1 : 0
Nesebar
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vihren 11 7 3 1 25:11 24
2 CSKA Sofia II 11 7 2 2 23:9 23
3 Fratria 11 6 4 1 17:8 22
4 Chernomorets 1919 11 6 3 2 18:8 21
5 Beroe 11 5 3 3 16:12 18
6 Rilski Sportist 11 5 3 3 14:10 18
7 Nesebar 11 5 2 4 20:17 17
8 Gorna 11 4 4 3 9:10 16
9 Yantra Gabrovo 11 5 1 5 12:11 16
10 Hebar 11 4 2 5 24:19 14
11 Etar 10 4 2 4 17:19 14
12 Marek 11 4 2 5 11:12 14
13 Spartak Pleven 11 4 1 6 11:22 13
14 Ludogorets II 10 3 3 4 9:10 12
15 Montana 11 3 2 6 13:23 11
16 Svoge 11 2 4 5 7:10 10
17 Dobrudzha 11 2 3 6 12:18 9
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 11 0 0 11 4:33 0
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