Sport Picks

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Heerenveen W vs AZ Alkmaar W

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie Women 2025/2026 Sportpark Skoatterwald, Heerenveen
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Meijer F.
Assist: Kroezen S.
32' Event
Ellouzi S.
34' Event
Meijer F.

AI Match Summary

The Eredivisie Women 2025/2026 game between Heerenveen W and AZ Alkmaar W finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Heerenveen W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Heerenveen W
39%
Draws
31%
AZ Alkmaar W
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and AZ Alkmaar W come out ahead of Heerenveen W on wins alone.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Eredivisie Women 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.6%
Heerenveen W Clean Sheet 15%
AZ Alkmaar W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Heerenveen W AZ Alkmaar W
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 8 9
Draws 2 9
Losses 17 12
Goals Scored 1.88 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.38 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Eredivisie Women
AZ Alkmaar W vs Heerenveen W
1:5
Jan 18, 2026 Eredivisie Women
Heerenveen W vs AZ Alkmaar W
3:2
Mar 26, 2025 Eredivisie Women
Heerenveen W vs AZ Alkmaar W
2:3
Nov 24, 2024 Eredivisie Women
AZ Alkmaar W vs Heerenveen W
1:0
May 11, 2024 Eredivisie Women
AZ Alkmaar W vs Heerenveen W
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Heerenveen W Compare

Top Goalscorer Meijer F.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Maatman E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

AZ Alkmaar W Compare

Top Goalscorer Ellouzi S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Stoop M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Heerenveen W 30 / 100
AZ Alkmaar W 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Heerenveen W AZ Alkmaar W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SCH Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Heerenveen W scored in 85% of their last 27 games.

AZ Alkmaar W let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Heerenveen W remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Heerenveen W VS AZ Alkmaar W
1.88 Goals Scored 1.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Heerenveen W

(Home)
22 May
Heerenveen W
1 : 3
Ajax W
08 May
Utrecht W
5 : 1
Heerenveen W
03 May
AZ Alkmaar W
1 : 5
Heerenveen W
26 Apr
Heerenveen W
0 : 1
PSV W
05 Apr
Hera United W
2 : 1
Heerenveen W
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AZ Alkmaar W

(Away)
14 Jul
AZ Alkmaar W
1 : 1
Twente W
22 May
AZ Alkmaar W
1 : 0
SBV Excelsior W
08 May
Ajax W
3 : 1
AZ Alkmaar W
03 May
AZ Alkmaar W
1 : 5
Heerenveen W
26 Apr
AZ Alkmaar W
1 : 1
Den Haag W
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1PSV W22173256:1554
2Ajax W22155255:1850
3Feyenoord W22145345:1747
4Twente W22144455:1946
5Utrecht W22114741:3737
6PEC Zwolle W221111035:3234
7Heerenveen W22821238:5126
8AZ Alkmaar W22661036:4624
9Den Haag W22641224:4522
10Hera United W22551224:4220
11SBV Excelsior W22221818:518
12NAC Breda W22211917:717
Promotion - Champions League Women (League phase)
Promotion - UEFA Europa Cup Women 2026/2027 (Qualification)