Sport Picks
Hemel Hempstead vs Chelmsford
England
National League South Focus Community Arena, Hemel Hempstead 
Match Events
43'
43'
Browne R.
90'
90'
Marriott A.
Own Goal
AI Match Summary
The National League South game between Hemel Hempstead and Chelmsford finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
24%
35%
41%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Chelmsford
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Chelmsford carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Hemel Hempstead a 36% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Hemel Hempstead Clean Sheet 20%
Chelmsford Clean Sheet 18%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Hemel Hempstead | Chelmsford |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 10 | 12 |
| Draws | 9 | 12 |
| Losses | 9 | 4 |
| Goals Scored | 1.14 | 1.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.81 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 8, 2026 National League South
Hemel Hempstead vs Chelmsford
1:1
Feb 23, 2026 National League South
Chelmsford vs Hemel Hempstead
1:0
Nov 25, 2025 National League South
Hemel Hempstead vs Chelmsford
2:1
Nov 15, 2025 FA Trophy
Hemel Hempstead vs Chelmsford
1:0
Feb 10, 2025 National League South
Chelmsford vs Hemel Hempstead
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Hemel Hempstead Compare
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41
Chelmsford Compare
Top Goalscorer Browne R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Hemel Hempstead 36 / 100
Chelmsford 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Hemel Hempstead Chelmsford
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Hemel Hempstead scored in 71% of their last 28 games.
Defensive concern: Chelmsford conceded in 61% of 28 recent games.
Solid form: Hemel Hempstead remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
Hemel Hempstead VS Chelmsford
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Hemel Hempstead
(Home) 19 Sept
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1 Wingate & Finchley
12 Sept
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1 Tonbridge
08 Sept
Ebbsfleet
0 : 0 Hemel Hempstead
05 Sept
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1 Farnham
31 Aug
Folkestone
2 : 0 Hemel Hempstead
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1 Wingate & Finchley
12 Sept
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1 Tonbridge
05 Sept
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 1 Farnham
29 Aug
Hemel Hempstead
1 : 3 Weston-super-Mare
18 Aug
Hemel Hempstead
0 : 1 Maidenhead
Page 1 of 3
Chelmsford
(Away) 19 Sept
Canvey Island
0 : 1 Chelmsford
12 Sept
Hampton & Richmond
1 : 1 Chelmsford
08 Sept
Dorking Wanderers
3 : 3 Chelmsford
05 Sept
Chelmsford
1 : 1 Salisbury
31 Aug
Weston-super-Mare
1 : 1 Chelmsford
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Canvey Island
0 : 1 Chelmsford
12 Sept
Hampton & Richmond
1 : 1 Chelmsford
08 Sept
Dorking Wanderers
3 : 3 Chelmsford
31 Aug
Weston-super-Mare
1 : 1 Chelmsford
22 Aug
Folkestone
1 : 1 Chelmsford
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17:9 | 19 |
| 2 | Weston-super-Mare | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16:7 | 17 |
| 3 | Dagenham & Red. | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9:7 | 16 |
| 4 | Salisbury | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16:7 | 15 |
| 5 | Billericay | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 18:14 | 15 |
| 6 | Tonbridge | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 18:9 | 14 |
| 7 | Truro | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:4 | 14 |
| 8 | Dover Ath. | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15:16 | 14 |
| 9 | Dorking Wanderers | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18:13 | 13 |
| 10 | Torquay | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13:11 | 13 |
| 11 | Farnham | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11:10 | 13 |
| 12 | Folkestone | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15:9 | 12 |
| 13 | Chesham | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 16:15 | 10 |
| 14 | Chelmsford | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 9:8 | 10 |
| 15 | Horsham FC | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:10 | 10 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8:10 | 10 |
| 17 | Maidenhead | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8:11 | 10 |
| 18 | Braintree | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13:18 | 10 |
| 19 | AFC Totton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8:13 | 10 |
| 20 | Farnborough | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6:11 | 10 |
| 21 | Hampton & Richmond | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11:23 | 8 |
| 22 | Ebbsfleet | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:1 | 5 |
| 23 | Slough Town | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 9:21 | 3 |
| 24 | Walton & Hersham | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4:24 | 1 |
Promotion - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - National League South (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League South (Play Offs)
