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Stadium Background

Heraclea vs Sarnese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Mokulu B.
45' Event
Santarpia P.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group H game between Heraclea and Sarnese finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Heraclea
44%
Draws
20%
Sarnese
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Heraclea have managed 1 goals a game lately — Sarnese are scoring more at 1.63.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Heraclea Clean Sheet 12%
Sarnese Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Heraclea Sarnese
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 8
Draws 8 13
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.88 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Heraclea vs Sarnese
1:1
Nov 9, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Sarnese vs Heraclea
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Heraclea Compare

Top Goalscorer Mokulu B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Sarnese Compare

Top Goalscorer Santarpia P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Heraclea 35 / 100
Sarnese 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Heraclea Sarnese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Heraclea scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Sarnese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Heraclea remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Heraclea VS Sarnese
1 Goals Scored 1.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Heraclea

(Home)
10 May
SS Nola 1925
1 : 1
Heraclea
03 May
Heraclea
2 : 1
Ferrandina
26 Apr
Martina Calcio
2 : 1
Heraclea
19 Apr
Heraclea
1 : 3
Barletta
12 Apr
Pompei
2 : 1
Heraclea
Page 1 of 6

Sarnese

(Away)
10 May
Sarnese
2 : 1
Pompei
03 May
Virtus Francavilla
2 : 2
Sarnese
26 Apr
Sarnese
2 : 2
Francavilla
19 Apr
Fidelis Andria
2 : 1
Sarnese
12 Apr
Sarnese
0 : 0
A.C.D. Nardo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Barletta342010454:2070
2Martina Calcio34188847:3062
3Citta di Fasano34188851:3562
4Paganese341771036:3258
5A.C.D. Nardo341413740:2755
6Gravina341671150:4055
7Afragolese3413101145:4649
8Fidelis Andria341391235:2848
9Virtus Francavilla3412121045:4048
10Real Normanna3410131127:2643
11Francavilla3411101339:3843
12Manfredonia3411101334:3943
13Sarnese349141151:4941
14SS Nola 1925341181542:5041
15Heraclea341081631:3938
16Pompei34971826:3834
17Ferrandina34791821:4330
18Acerrana34352620:7414
Promotion - Serie D - Group H (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H (Play Out)