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Herbania vs Arucas

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Morales A.
58' Event
Frieh A.
65'
Padilla J.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 game between Herbania and Arucas finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Herbania
35%
Draws
32%
Arucas
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Arucas have managed 0.97 goals a game lately — Herbania are scoring more at 1.17.
  • 32% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Herbania Clean Sheet 22%
Arucas Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Herbania Arucas
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 6
Draws 10 11
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1.17 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.73 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Herbania vs Arucas
1:1
Sep 27, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Arucas vs Herbania
1:0
Feb 1, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Herbania vs Arucas
0:0
Sep 21, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Arucas vs Herbania
1:0
Feb 4, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Arucas vs Herbania
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Herbania Compare

Top Goalscorer Morales A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Arucas Compare

Top Goalscorer Frieh A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Herbania 37 / 100
Arucas 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Herbania Arucas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arucas Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arucas's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Herbania's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Herbania has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Herbania VS Arucas
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Herbania

(Home)
10 May
Herbania
1 : 1
Atletico Paso
03 May
SD Tenisca
4 : 0
Herbania
25 Apr
Herbania
1 : 0
Real Union Tenerife
22 Apr
Herbania
1 : 1
Telde
18 Apr
Tamaraceite
4 : 1
Herbania
Page 1 of 6

Arucas

(Away)
10 May
CD Marino
1 : 2
Arucas
03 May
Arucas
0 : 1
Mensajero
25 Apr
Tenerife C
1 : 1
Arucas
22 Apr
Union Sur Yaiza
3 : 0
Arucas
18 Apr
Arucas
0 : 0
San Bartolome
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico Paso 34 18 13 3 51:19 67
2 UD San Fernando 34 19 9 6 49:23 66
3 Mensajero 34 18 9 7 51:31 63
4 Tamaraceite 34 19 6 9 56:36 63
5 Panaderia 34 15 10 9 47:33 55
6 Las Palmas C 34 15 9 10 58:42 54
7 Tenerife C 34 14 10 10 49:46 52
8 Villa Santa Brigida 34 15 5 14 42:35 50
9 Lanzarote 34 12 12 10 45:36 48
10 Real Union Tenerife 34 12 9 13 34:32 45
11 San Miguel 34 10 9 15 37:43 39
12 CD Marino 34 8 15 11 44:40 39
13 Union Sur Yaiza 34 10 8 16 33:43 38
14 San Bartolome 34 8 12 14 30:55 36
15 Arucas 34 7 12 15 31:47 33
16 Herbania 34 7 11 16 39:58 32
17 SD Tenisca 34 6 7 21 32:68 25
18 Telde 34 5 10 19 30:71 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 (Play Offs)