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Hercilio Luz vs Caravaggio

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
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AI Match Summary

The Catarinense 2 game between Hercilio Luz and Caravaggio finished 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Hercilio Luz
44%
Draws
20%
Caravaggio
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Caravaggio carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Hercilio Luz Clean Sheet 12%
Caravaggio Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hercilio Luz Caravaggio
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 14 15
Draws 7 6
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 2.25 2.75
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 22, 2026 Catarinense 2
Hercilio Luz vs Caravaggio
0:0
May 31, 2026 Catarinense 2
Caravaggio vs Hercilio Luz
2:2
Feb 2, 2025 Catarinense
Caravaggio vs Hercilio Luz
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hercilio Luz 35 / 100
Caravaggio 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hercilio Luz Caravaggio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Hercilio Luz remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Hercilio Luz scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Caravaggio's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 31 matches.

H2H data points to 1.67 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Hercilio Luz VS Caravaggio
2.25 Goals Scored 2.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Hercilio Luz

(Home)
25 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2
Hercilio Luz
22 Jul
Hercilio Luz
0 : 0
Caravaggio
19 Jul
Tubarao
0 : 2
Hercilio Luz
15 Jul
Hercilio Luz
1 : 0
Gremio Juventus
12 Jul
Blumenau
0 : 2
Hercilio Luz
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Caravaggio

(Away)
25 Jul
Caravaggio
3 : 1
Gremio Juventus
22 Jul
Hercilio Luz
0 : 0
Caravaggio
18 Jul
Nacao
2 : 2
Caravaggio
15 Jul
Caravaggio
2 : 1
Tubarao
12 Jul
Caravaggio
9 : 0
Jaragua-SC
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hercilio Luz17123233:939
2CA Metropolitano17112433:1835
3Caravaggio1795344:1932
4Blumenau1894535:1531
5Tubarao1765623:1923
6Nacao1756618:2421
7Fluminense-SC1763816:2221
8Guarani de Palhoca1755722:2420
9Gremio Juventus17521016:2317
10Jaragua-SC1801176:731
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)