Sport Picks
Hercilio Luz vs CA Metropolitano - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Brazil
Copa Santa Catarina 
Match Events
23'
23'
Nando
37'
37'
Miguel Silva
45'
45'
Rodrigo Gaia
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 4-2. The second leg ended 4-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
57%
15%
28%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hercilio Luz
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Hercilio Luz come out ahead of CA Metropolitano on wins alone.
- Model gives Hercilio Luz a 57% chance of winning this.
- Hercilio Luz have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Hercilio Luz, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Hercilio Luz Clean Sheet 68%
CA Metropolitano Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Hercilio Luz | CA Metropolitano |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 17 | 16 |
| Draws | 4 | 6 |
| Losses | 8 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.76 | 1.57 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.00 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 30, 2026 Copa Santa Catarina
Hercilio Luz vs CA Metropolitano
4:2
Jun 21, 2026 Catarinense 2
Hercilio Luz vs CA Metropolitano
3:0
May 3, 2026 Catarinense 2
CA Metropolitano vs Hercilio Luz
0:0
Mar 27, 2021 Catarinense
Hercilio Luz vs CA Metropolitano
2:2
Dec 13, 2020 Catarinense 2
Hercilio Luz vs CA Metropolitano
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Hercilio Luz Compare
Top Goalscorer Nando
2 Goals Assists Leader Miguel Silva
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1
CA Metropolitano Compare
Top Goalscorer Rodrigo Gaia
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Hercilio Luz 95 / 100
CA Metropolitano 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Hercilio Luz CA Metropolitano
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Hercilio Luz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Hercilio Luz's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.
Hercilio Luz went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Difficult form: CA Metropolitano registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Hercilio Luz VS CA Metropolitano
2 Goals Scored 2.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Hercilio Luz
(Home) 26 Sept
Hercilio Luz
2 : 1 Nacao
19 Sept
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2 Hercilio Luz
12 Sept
Joinville
1 : 3 Hercilio Luz
30 Aug
Hercilio Luz
4 : 2 CA Metropolitano
25 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2 Hercilio Luz
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Hercilio Luz
2 : 1 Nacao
30 Aug
Hercilio Luz
4 : 2 CA Metropolitano
22 Jul
Hercilio Luz
0 : 0 Caravaggio
15 Jul
Hercilio Luz
1 : 0 Gremio Juventus
28 Jun
Hercilio Luz
4 : 2 Fluminense-SC
Page 1 of 3
CA Metropolitano
(Away) 27 Sept
CA Metropolitano
0 : 1 Figueirense
19 Sept
Blumenau
0 : 1 CA Metropolitano
07 Sept
CA Metropolitano
2 : 5 Marcilio Dias
30 Aug
Hercilio Luz
4 : 2 CA Metropolitano
25 Jul
CA Metropolitano
3 : 0 Fluminense-SC
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Blumenau
0 : 1 CA Metropolitano
30 Aug
Hercilio Luz
4 : 2 CA Metropolitano
22 Jul
Gremio Juventus
0 : 2 CA Metropolitano
15 Jul
Blumenau
4 : 1 CA Metropolitano
12 Jul
Tubarao
2 : 3 CA Metropolitano
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcilio Dias | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15:9 | 11 |
| 2 | Figueirense | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 10 |
| 3 | Hercilio Luz | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11:8 | 9 |
| 4 | Joinville | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10:8 | 9 |
| 5 | Santa Catarina | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 6 | CA Metropolitano | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5:10 | 3 |
| 7 | Barra FC (Santa Catarina) | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7:8 | 3 |
| 8 | Nacao | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6:12 | 3 |
| 9 | Blumenau | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3:6 | 2 |
Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina (Play Offs)
