Sport Picks
Hercilio Luz vs Caravaggio
Brazil
Catarinense 2 
AI Match Summary
Hercilio Luz host Caravaggio in the Catarinense 2. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Caravaggio have shipped 1.13 goals a game lately, while Hercilio Luz have conceded 0.75 and scored 2.38. Past meetings favor Caravaggio slightly — 0-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 31, 2026, ending 2:2. Model xG sits at 1.75 vs 1.88, favoring Caravaggio. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Caravaggio carry the better recent record into this one.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Hercilio Luz | Caravaggio |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 26 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 14 |
| Draws | 6 | 4 |
| Losses | 9 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 2.38 | 3 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.75 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.38 | 3.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.75 | 1.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sokapicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Sokapicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Solid form: Hercilio Luz remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.
Hercilio Luz scored in 62% of their last 26 games.
Caravaggio's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.
H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hercilio Luz | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 30:9 | 32 |
| 2 | CA Metropolitano | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 24:13 | 29 |
| 3 | Caravaggio | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 40:16 | 27 |
| 4 | Blumenau | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 27:11 | 24 |
| 5 | Tubarao | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 21:13 | 23 |
| 6 | Fluminense-SC | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 13:17 | 17 |
| 7 | Guarani de Palhoca | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 13:22 | 15 |
| 8 | Gremio Juventus | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 13:20 | 14 |
| 9 | Nacao | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12:22 | 14 |
| 10 | Jaragua-SC | 14 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5:55 | 1 |